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Weekend Edition (May 17-18, 2008) Key U.S. Data Releases and Events Global Insight What a Deal: Trash for Treasuries NYT (Morgenson) The Old Titans All Collapsed. Is the U.S. Next? Washington Post This may well be the Big One: the multi-decade endgame of U.S. ascendancy. The chronology makes historical sense -- four decades of premature jitters segueing into unhappy reality. Remembering the Victorian Depression EDC What Does It Mean When Monetary Policy Conducts a Fiscal Policy Operation? McCulley Material witness State Street PDF In the Eye of the Economic Hurricane Northern Trust PDF A Red Herring Noland When government plays games with numbers, we all lose CMonitor The Scars of Losing a Home NYT (Shiller) It’s Not Just Petroleum, All Imports Cost More NYT (Norris) On Inflation and The Fed Merk The Fed at the Crossroads Mauldin PDF The economic sky has fallen Mogambo Ash - Swenlin on earnings - Harding Bernanke Wants Pelosi's Consent to Start Paying Interest on Bank Reserves BL Asset Prices Matter, On the Way Up and Down Barron’s Warning to equity investors: 'Watch your tail' G&M “We've had the initial shock to animal spirits and the initial shock to the housing market. But most of these things take a long time to work through the system...” An Alarm Is Blaring: Time to Buy Hulbert An age of uncertainty Chicago Tribune Seniors living on a fixed income face hard choices as costs soar for groceries, gas and medicine. No relief is in sight. FSN Broadcast for Saturday, May 17 Financial Sense U.S. Financial Data, May 16 Issue FRBSL Scandinavians unite to end Iceland's chaos Telegraph The solidarity gesture is a powerful signal to hedge funds betting on Iceland's downfall that they are up against the international system. Banks may be better off selling assets Independent Judge puts off ABCP ruling G&M Fannie, Freddie Called Weak in Capital Base WSJ The Senate Banking Committee is prepared to vote as early as Tuesday on legislation aimed at improving regulation of Fannie and Freddie End of crisis metrics FT Alphaville Credit Crunch Watch Oxford Economics PDF The financial stress indicator has dropped for the ninth successive week, and has now returned to the levels prevailing before the Bear Stearns collapse in March. The Great Credit Squeeze: How it Happened, How to Prevent Another FDIC The Failure of Arbitrage Legg Mason PDF Boom and Gloom in the Housing Markets: The Sequel FRBSL PDF Builders get hammered again CNN Nonresidential construction held up as housing slumped. But a slowdown for offices, hotels and malls is looming, which could be another jolt to the economy. A Buyer’s Market, a Seller’s Pain NYT The man who told you so Baltimore Sun Using Countrywide as an Example of Housing Excellence Dr.HB Sacramento-area renters suffer from foreclosures SacBee 5 Key Housing Stats: Examining the U.S. Housing Market in May 2008 MyBudget Cities sue home lenders USAT Don't get excited over 'housing rebound' story Baltimore Sun Saudis and US act to bring down oil price Times Bush fails to win Saudi help on gas prices Crude Oil Prices 1861 - 2008 Forbes Oil prices: Wall Street's game CNN Japan's silos key to relieving rice shortage Times Online With commodities traders sniffing that a US-Japan deal was imminent, rice futures ended the Asian trading week in a dramatic nosedive The Food Chain: World’s Poor Pay Price as Crop Research Is Cut NYT China sought cheaper iron in share deal Australian Eric Sprott: Short sellers tarnished my IPO G&M Morgan Stanley cut 1,500 jobs this week: source Reuters Ford Sells $5.3 Billion of Auto-Loan Bonds, Biggest Offering in Six Years BL Berkshire's No. 2 man helps from the background AP Carl Icahn will destroy Yahoo MW Battle for Yahoo MW Coverage Not-So-Safe-Deposit Boxes ABC States Seize Citizens' Property to Balance Their Budgets What's next for the Ron Paul revolution? WSJ China's Simple Solution Schiff As China grapples with the consequences of its devastating earthquake, it has also begun to finally confront the destabilizing forces bubbling up beneath its economic landscape. Construction industry feels squeeze Times Online Still Springtime in Canada BMO Focus PDF In Siberia, Shopping Malls Are Sprouting All Over NYT High-Tech Japanese, Running Out of Engineers NYT Hong Kong Loses an Independent Watchdog Asia Sentinel Webb resigns because the exchange’s business is too murky Reserve ratio hike postponed in quake-hit areas China Daily
Weekly Trends Scotia Weekly Focus - May 16-23, 2008 Danske PDFs
Friday May 16, 2008 Most U.S. Stocks Drop, Led by Retailers, Banks; J.C. Penney, Keycorp Fall BL 30-year mortgage rates fall to 6.01%, lowest in a month AP U.S. to suspend oil reserve shipments CNN Cheap oil may be history as $100 becomes the new norm MW Gold futures climb past $900 as oil prices surge MW Saudi Arabia Plans to Boost June Oil Production by 300,000 Barrels a Day BL Paulson upbeat about economy, markets MW Consumer Confidence Plunges to 28-Year Low Reuters Housing Starts in U.S. Unexpectedly Increase on Condominium Construction BL PDF File Headwinds vs. Tailwinds Comstock Blackstone Says Markets May Be in `Eye of Hurricane' BL Nobel Laureate Scholes Says Financial-Market `Storm' May Not Have Passed BL Californians leading the way to consumer bust Reuters (Saft) Slowdown fears easing? Then where's the growth Globe & Mail Okay, it's definitely a deep, deep recession TIME Blog Dollar rally, leaks put fresh focus on G7 meetings MW Traders speculate U.S. officials pushed other nations for greenback support The dollar's short-lived comeback CNN We've Seen This Movie Before Steve Forbes The dollar debasement that the Federal Reserve began in 2004 and exacerbated in the aftermath of last summer's credit crisis is wreaking the havoc history told us it would. Government Inflation Data at Odds with Reality Dorsch The incredible shrinking nest egg USAT Private investors shun US assets, data show outflow Reuters TIC World could face severe economic downturn, new UN report suggests UN Bernanke's bubble laboratory WSJ Princeton protégés of Fed chief study the economics of manias. A deficit of intelligence, insanity in surplus Mogambo Winter - Bonner - Mish - Price - Dr. HB Kudlow on Ritholtz Big Picture Fed, BOE Signal End of Rate Cuts as Price Pressures Increase, Crisis Eases BL Bond Sales, Muni Bankers Are Set to Dive Off Cliff Mysak Muni-bond meltdown: Could California be setting a trend? Globe & Mail Is AIG the Citigroup of insurance? Economist Cheap loan hopes hit as Libor soars Times Online International Banking - Paradise lost Economist Color-Blind Merrill in a Sea of Red Flags NYT (Norris) Would you invest money — at a very low interest rate — to finance mortgage loans made to risky borrowers who put no money down? Fannie to Scrap Policy Over Down Payments WSJ Housing woes lure back bold buyers CS Monitor From California to Florida, investors snap up distressed properties, hoping to profit. Growing Number of Affluent Homeowners Can No Longer Afford Their Mortgages WP How Icahn Influences Yahoo Without Buying the Stock WSJ Blog Buffett's Berkshire Boosts Kraft, Wells Fargo Stakes BL “If a stock goes down 50 percent it doesn't bother me in the least” Buffett pulls out of RBS insurance sale: report Reuters For Wall Street Workers, Ax Falls Quietly NYT Macy's Has Debt Rating Cut by Moody's, Loses Icahn as Investor BL Miller sees drinkers buying less-expensive beers AP Critics: SEC no match for investment banks Financial Week A solid fund for a shaky market CNN Stellar art-auction results in New York do not tell the full story Economist Princeton's Burton Malkiel says U.S. investors are underweight China MW -- From Wall Street to the Great Wall Amazon Justifying poor investments by insisting, 'This time it's different' IHT Bush May Have Lost Wealth During Presidency WP Vice President Cheney and his wife, Lynne, have fared better Beware Risk Fear Return UBS Global gold hedging falls 18 pct in Q1 - Fortis Reuters Oil Surges to Record Above $127 on Speculation China Will Boost Purchases BL Goldman raises second-half average oil price forecast to $141 MW US-Saudi axis faces day of truth over oil prices Ambrose Evans-Pritchard If the Saudis deny help once again, they risk incalculable damage to their strategic alliance with Washington. Who Really Controls the Oil Market? Arab News Energy Whiz on a Selling Spree Dorfman Gaines remains a die-hard energy bull and sees oil climbing to $200 a barrel The key to commodity profits Jubak Soaring freight costs add to price of basics FT Rice Slumps, Set for Biggest Weekly Drop Since 2004, as Supplies Increase BL As food prices shoot up, so do backyard gardens CS Monitor Mexican tortilla prices 'up 18%' BBC Steel prices set to top ¥100,000 a ton Asahi Venezuela stops open-pits and gold mines Reuters Oil May Reach $500 a Barrel, Chavez Warns BL New Study Finds Silver Futures Market is Functioning Properly CFTC Study Finds No Evidence of Manipulation ECB liquidity scheme fears FT The ECB is voiced "high concern" at growing evidence that banks are exploiting its efforts to unblock the frozen funding markets by using its liquidity scheme to offload more risky assets than it envisaged. Iceland to Receive $2.3 Billion From Nordic Central Banks to Prop Up Krona BL Japan's Economy Grows 3.3%, Faster Than Estimated, Led by Exports to Asia BL India's Inflation Unexpectedly Accelerates on Food BL Food prices stop rising, consumers happy Financial Express China's Stocks Bow to Whims of Control Freaks Sesit The euro-area economy - Too good to last Economist A global slowdown, dearer oil, a strong euro and the credit crunch all start to bite 'I will rescue economy' - Gordon Brown ThisisMoney “I have done it before and I can do it again” Bank 'must switch or crucify consumer' Telegraph India's Global M&A Boom Business Week Pots and kettles Economist The credit crisis has cooled Asia's ardour towards Western banks. But the region stands to gain even more from opening up than Wall Street does 2008 Country Returns BeSpoke Chinese Quake Shows Change in Winds Across Asia Pesek An Unnatural Disaster Newsweek America bears much of the blame for its waning global clout. The Geopolitics Of Israel Investor Insight
Fed's Direct Loans to Banks Climb to Record Level BL Fed auctions $7bn in securities BBC The amount auctioned was far less than the $25bn available Not your father's Fed MW
Thursday May 15, 2008 US declines to cite China as a currency manipulator AP OPEC trims 2008 global oil demand forecast Reuters Home builders grow more pessimistic in May Reuters Bernanke `Strongly Urges' U.S. Banks to Raise More Capital as Crisis Wanes BL Speech Icahn says he will fight Yahoo on Microsoft Reuters U.S. Industrial Production Drops More Than Forecast as Consumers Cut Back BL FED Manufacturing in New York Unexpectedly Contracts BL NYFed - JClaims Up Fed chief Volcker sees 70's-style inflation risks Reuters Volcker Testimony “If there is a real loss of confidence in the dollar, then I think we are in trouble.” Fed Adds Liquidity and Economy Avoids Recession Berry Paulson Should Act to Stop Dollar Slump, Americans Say in Poll BL FX Crossroads - EUR/USD: Will history repeat itself? Danske PDF OECD warning as stagflation goes global Ambrose Evans-Pritchard OECD PR: “The latest data for major OECD non-member economies point to a potential downturn in Brazil, China and India...” How much longer will the U.S. remain the leader in the world competitiveness? IMD Towards a re-make of the Japanese tragedy? U.S. Consumer Outlook: Slowdown Continues BCA Research Poll: Americans' money worries are growing LA Times The great asset price controversy FT On Bookies and Economic Gurus North Recession? Not so fast, say some economists WSJ Schwarzenegger to propose borrowing against lottery AP Faber & Gartman on commodities Bloomberg Video Buffett Talks Food Prices CNNVideo Barclays Writes Down $3.3 Billion, Says Investment Banking Is Profitable BL Blackstone Has $66.5 Million Loss as Buyouts Dry Up, Portfolio Value Drops BL Wishful thinking about Freddie Mac Fortune Shares rally as investors make a risky bet that the housing meltdown will be contained. Automotive Armageddon Fortune The next U.S. president could obliterate the auto industry as we know it. Bank fair value debt gains may yet be reversed Reuters GE May Sell or Spin Off Appliance Unit, People Say BL Citi's Bad Bet Forbes Wal-Mart's "Faded Glory" Leonard Microsoft's Vista: New Horizon or the End of the Road for PC Operating Systems? Wharton Merrill Tries to Temper the Pollyannas in Its Ranks NYT Wall Street finally may be mustering up its courage to say ”sell” more often. Inside the Earnings Engine Schwab Beware of financial engineering. Look for organic growth at reasonable prices. SEC Charges ex-Broadcom CFO, Others CFO Broward broker barred from industry Miami Herald Senator wants FTC to join Countrywide investigation USAT Bacon's $86 Million Headless Corpse Tops Sotheby's Biggest Sale BL When the Bank Freezes Your Line of Credit WSJ Across the U.S., sellers with good credit who have never been late on a mortgage payment are getting their home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) frozen or downgraded. Flood of Foreclosures Prove Loan Modification Isn't Working Mish Real Homes of Genius: Today we Salute you Compton Dr. HB Collateral Foreclosure Damage for Condo Owners NYT George F. Will: The other side of housing crisis Sac Bee Foreclosures take toll on mental health USAT Recovery From Worst Housing Slump Since 1930s Comes With Angel BL “You buy the mortgage for pennies on the dollar, carry the big stick, tell the homeowner how it's going to be, then double your money very easily” As Dues Dry Up, The Neighbors Pay WSJ The incredible shrinking house CNN Detroit condo project puts discarded containers to use DetFP Rotations continue: gold vs. potash Mineweb The resource bubble Financial Post Food prices poised to drop sharply: Yardeni G&M What does $120 oil mean for the global economy? Fabius Maximus How credit cards boost gas prices CNN Gas prices up? All in your head, data says Reuters “The drop makes absolutely no sense. Where does the BLS buy their gas?" Oil Traders Draw Congress' Ire Business Week Is Wall Street To Blame For Runaway Energy Prices? Dow Jones ExxonMobil's Donald Humphreys Defends Big Oil and Its Role in a Global Economy Wharton Baltic capesize sea index hits record on China ore Reuters Chart Japanese Machinery Orders Decline for Second Month as Global Growth Slows BL China Factory, Property Spending Rises 25.7%, Adds to Overheating Concern BL Globalization's Victors Hunt for the Next Low-Wage Country Spiegel Chinese airlines face downturn China Daily In April, Air China reported little change in traffic volume from a year ago, and its passenger load factor fell for the second consecutive month. China doesn’t show the way Indian Express Bank chief: Economy is facing recession ThisisMoney Housing downturn hits CSR Australian Red-hot Canadian housing market loses its heat G&M China slow in meeting WTO commitments: US study AFP GOA Superclass and the Inequity of Globalization YALE Global The New Cold War NYT (Friedman)
Wednesday May 14, 2008 Gold futures drop over $19 in three sessions MW Rate hikes by November? Futures traders bet on it MW Why the U.S. dollar's decline finally may have ended Kellner Merrill Tells Analysts to Rate 20% of Stocks as Sell, Limits Buys to 70% BL Consumer Prices in U.S. Rose 0.2% in April, Less Than Economists Forecast BL BLS Foreclosure filings soar 65% to record CNN Dollar Bears Turn Bullish as End of Rate Cuts May Boost U.S. Asset Appeal BL The crisis rotates from America to Europe, and Asia Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Productivity's poisoned legacy Bear’s Lair Economic 'misery' more widespread CNN Recoupling: More Likely Malign Than Benign Berner Massive risk looms, but bulls have reason to hope Harrison Fund Manager Survey Finds Inflation Overtakes Growth as Number One Stagflation Fear BW Recession Fears Spreading NFIB Growing Deficits Threaten Pensions WP Accounting Tactics Conceal a Crisis For Public Workers Credit, Housing, Commodities, and the Economy Yellen MBIA, Ambac Losses Raise Concern Top Aaa Ratings May Again Be in Jeopardy BL CDOs Flicker to Life as Babson, Deutsche Take Over Hartford, Brevan Funds BL Is It Over? Stelzer Freddie Mac posts loss, sees more housing weakness MW Fannie Mae adds capital with $2 bln preferred stock Reuters Barclays Sums Don't Add Up for Doubtful Analysts Gilbert Crédit Agricole forced into €5.9bn rights issue FT A&L writedowns bigger than expected FT Battered B&B in emergency rights issue Times Online It would also represent a U-turn for the bank, which only three weeks ago emphatically denied a report that it was looking at a rights issue. Consumer Credit Crisi$ Showing Up In The Cards NYP Get ready for more bank failures CNN Mortgage applications rose 2.9% last week: MBA MW Greenspan doesn't expect U.S. housing bottom until 2009 MW The subprime house of cards Cleveland A Plain Dealer analysis shows that nearly half of the subprime loans written in Cleveland in 2005 by five of the country's biggest subprime lenders resulted in a foreclosure filing. FBI warns of escalating mortgage fraud AP Ownership, Rental Costs and the Prospects of Building Home Equity CEPR PDF An Analysis of 100 Metropolitan Areas The Housing Bust and Lending: The Worst Is Yet to Come Smith Blog Icahn buys Yahoo shares; mulls board proxy contest WSJ Deere Profit Misses Estimates as Construction Sales Fall; Shares Retreat BL JPMorgan may cut 4,000 jobs on Bear deal and markets Reuters Sears: From majesty to hedge-fund dust Asia Times Ex-Banker From UBS Is Indicted in Tax Case NYT Bankruptcies now come pre-packaged Reuters Which Rules Rule? Now Ask FASB CFO Physical buyers emerge as gold prices slip G&M Pension Funds `Diversify' Into Commodity Bubble Baum Commodity prices too pumped, TD warns G&M The market sets high oil prices to tell us what to do FT (Wolf) Oil's Murky Math Business Week OECD leading indicator points to economic slowdown Reuters Food investment, not imperialism FT Indians bristle at U.S. criticism on food prices IHT Thai Rice Price Breaches $1,000 a Ton for First Time BL Iron prices still red-hot, says Rio Australian Natural Gas: Stay Bullish BCA Research BHP hits record on talk of Chinese buyer Reuters Bank of England Says Inflation Will Accelerate, Overshoot Government Limit BL Mervyn King warns the 'nice decade is behind us' Times Online EU Officials Welcome Euro Decline, France Says May Still Be 20% Overvalued BL China's Industrial Production Growth Cools; Yuan Falls on Export Concerns BL Mainland money supply and loan growth add pace Standard The BRICs (and Mortar) of the New Global Economy Asia Sentinel Japan Inc. profit to fall for first time in 7 years: poll AFP Housing minister Caroline Flint’s blunder reveals 10% slump but it’s not official – yet Times Mortgages slump below 1990s crash level ThisisMoney Redrow axes jobs as homes crisis deepens Telegraph Fears that Britain could once again be haunted by the spectre of 'stagflation' Independent Fidelity veteran warns of bear rally FT Trading suspension in effect for 29 Chinese firms MW
Fed looks at ways to fight asset bubbles FT Bank considers change to Greenspan doctrine Ben "Iron Man" Bernanke Loenard
Tuesday May 13, 2008 Fed Officials Warn on Inflation, Say Markets Still Unsettled BL Risk of economic contraction rises Reuters Philly Fed Home prices continue sharp descent CNN NAR Bank of America Increases Home-Equity Loss Estimate on Consumer `Stress' BL U.S. April Retail Sales Fall 0.2%, Increase 0.5% Excluding Auto Purchases BL Census Wrong then, wrong again Baker The same economists who failed to spot this year's financial meltdown are now predicting that everything will soon be fine Debunking five myths Merrill (Rosenberg) PDF Bernanke Says Fed `Stands Ready' to Increase Cash Loans to Banks BL Speech Bernanke's comments contrast with those by Paulson and Wall Street leaders who say the worst of the credit crisis is over. Bernanke Lunched With Dimon, Rubin Before Fed's $13 Billion Rescue of Bear BL The Fed Scorecard: 9 Months of Cutting and Red Queen’s Race Dr. HB The Human Foundations of Financial Risk Pollock The Declining Importance of the United States Caijing Stranger than fictional balance sheets Mogambo The Prelude to Double-Digit Inflation Weiss US has April surplus but budget strained Reuters Equity Prices of Major World Markets - Recovery Is Here? Northern Trust PDF U.S. 2-year notes: Are they good value? NB Financial PDF Survey: 1 in 10 boomers borrowing for everyday expenses AP Rubenstein Says `Enormous' Bank Losses Unrecognized BL CDO debt could pose renewed danger for banks NYP Guy Hands Rejects Banks' Offers for LBO Debt, Sees Parallels With Subprime BL Bankers Scurrying for Cover Will Sock Muni Issuers Mysak Who wants credit? No one FT Alphaville US recession `likely,' says HSBC after crunch losses ~ HSBC predicts more US woes Vinke: HSBC bank 'undervalued loss by $30 billion' Times Online Failure of ABCP deal would 'doom' everyone Financial Post Regulators under fire for ignoring red flags Washington Times Mortgage cos. reveal damage from housing crisis AP Big Government Responsible for Housing Bubble Paul No money, no savings, no equity: Why bailouts won't work LA Times Blog Toll Brothers Posts 30% Decline in Revenue as U.S. Housing Slump Persists BL Wal-Mart Net Rises on Discounts; Second-Quarter Profit May Trail Estimates BL Toyota executive says new Mississippi auto plant delayed by worries over US market AP Wachovia Subpoenaed Over Securities Auctions NYT (AP) GM deals Windsor new blow G&M Pull the plug on raters' special status G&M A Wish List for Fixing Wall Street NYT Can Money Buy Happiness? TheAmerican Soros sees 'reflexivity' theory of economics as life's work USAT The Financial Crisis: An Interview with George Soros NY Books Sell Silver Strength Vs Gold UBS Gold versus Industrial Commodities Saville Gold: Finding Support? BCA Research Why Wall Street Hates Gold and Silver Ruff The Secular Bull Case For Commodities Wachovia PDF The last bite New Yorker Is the world’s food system collapsing? More signs of trouble for corn CS Monitor A sluggish spring could mean a disappointing harvest on top of already-high corn prices Corn Prices Rise, Pitting Chickens Against Ethanol WP IEA cuts world oil demand forecast G&M The so-called oil bubble Krugman Is the High Price of Oil Being Driven by Too Much Speculation? Schaeffers High fuel prices curtail RV trips – just a little CS Monitor The Silver Lining in High Commodity Prices Rogoff Old gas pumps can't handle ever-rising prices AP China's April Retail Sales Climb 22%, Fastest Pace in at Least Nine Years BL FDI surges in the first four months Xinhua China's weakness the greater danger Asia Times Bank of Japan 'extremely watchful' of risk AP U.K. Real-Estate Slump Deepens After Credit Squeeze Prompts `Sea Change' BL Surveyors' mood gloomiest in 30 years Times Online King prepares to eat humble pie Independent Leading Bank Dies Out in Banking Industry Korea Times Shot across the bows on bankers' bonuses Telegraph Westpac deal rocks Four Pillars Australian Be wary of TSX rally, investors warned FP Can China Take on Boeing and Airbus? Business Week U.S. victims of attacks in Israel sue Swiss bank Reuters Earthquake rocks China WSJ Shanghai stocks drop sharply after earthquake MW Trading suspended in 66 Chinese firms after deadly quake AFP China quake disaster set off by colliding land masses IHT
Monday May 12, 2008 Stocks up as oil price drop eases inflation fears AP Round Two - Home Price Erosion Hussman The global slump of 2008-09 has begun as poison spreads Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Dollar Rises on Speculation Decline Was Excessive, Federal Reserve on Hold BL Tide may be turning for dollar Reuters The global euro needs a stronger apparatus FT (Münchau) Beijing and Riyadh will call the shots on ailing dollar's future Telegraph Washington counts on slide in eurozone to resuscitate the greenback Times Online The 2000 recession can tell us a lot about today's US economy Jackson Treasury Cash Avalanche Offers Respite for Bond Bears BL Here's Your Chance to Bet Against Treasurys WSJ Saut: "Unless we are going into a depression, the 10-year Treasury bond is a stone-cold sell. It's one of the most overpriced assets in the world." Credit-Default Swaps: Weapons of Mass Speculation Barron’s (Via MW) Mother's Day spending may be down in slower economy AP Value to unlock: Banks are starting to find buyers for mortgage securities FT California man losing nine homes in mortgage mess Reuters “I didn't anticipate a downturn of epic proportions such that home values are 40 percent less than they were” A California Couple's Descent Into Foreclosure, Bankruptcy WSJ Find out if you are financially fit to buy a home CS Monitor Fannie to Aid Underwater Loans WSJ The Next Chapter in the Foreclosure Crisis Dr. HB Housing slump hits builders DetNews Suppliers, jobs vanish as piles of unsold homes in Metro Detroit make new construction rare. A Credit Crisis Scorecard Forbes Tourists desert London as credit crunch bites Telegraph Student loan providers back out KC Star Rebounds by Hedge-Fund Stars Prove 'It's a Mulligan Industry' WSJ (Complete via Google) Delphi to Shift Some Pension Liabilities to GM WSJ (Via Google jump) Cablevision Offer Baffles Wall Street (Again) NYT Death plays on pension funds’ minds Financial News Bear Bankers Hibernate With Pay New Yorker Warren Buffett’s three Golden Rules of Investing MoneyWeb Activists push to repeal state income tax Boston Globe Commodities check doesn't slow Adens Brimelow First exchange-traded notes for platinum fuel latest rally MW 'Ban on more commodity futures unlikely' Reuters Four ways to ease a global food crisis over the next year WSJ Gas prices hit another record CNN Gas prices rattle Americans USA Oil Shock 2? CS Monitor With prices at $120 a barrel, Americans are facing an oil adjustment. Saudi smile likely for Bush on oil plea, not more Reuters Bush is scheduled to meet Saudi King Abdullah at his private farm on Friday to mark the 75th anniversary of the formal establishment of U.S.-Saudi relations. 'Shockwave' scenario: How the US might deal with a terrorist strike CS America's value can be figured in barrels of oil Burns Nation worth less in commodity today than at any time since 1970 Phosphate latest craze for investors Australian Thieves have died stealing scrap Dayton Daily Stealing copper, scrap and precious metals is a growing crime not only domestically, but globally as well. China's Inflation Accelerates to 8.5%, Close to Fastest Pace Since 1996 BL Japan Merchant Sentiment Falls as Inflation Quickens BL As safe as houses? How harsh realities are dispelling the home market myths King People are led to believe that homes are automatic generators of additional wealth. This argument is mostly spurious Firms 'up prices as costs soar' - UK economic outlook 'worsening' BBC Mother of all hangovers looming: Rudd Australian Big Banks want Carney to have more power Globe & Mail Executives want finance minister to push through legislation that will let central bank accept riskier assets as collateral Venezuela's Chavez slams Germany's Merkel comments Reuters Aid trickles into Burma, but toll 'could reach 1 million if disease set in' Times Online
A Crack Technician's Indicators Yell Sell Dorfman
Weekend Edition (May 10-11, 2008) Key US Data Releases and Events GInsigh BOE Inflation Report Star Economic Attraction When Should the Fed Crash the Party? NYT Why Investors Fail Mauldin PDF Stagnation to Trump Inflation BMO Focus PDF So long as growth remains tepid, the inflation threat should fade just like bad memories of Watergate and disco music. Forward thinking State Street PDF A Pause That Refreshes or Something More? Harding A New Inflationary Epoch Noland Swenlin Earnings Summary Decision Point The Ticking Credit Card Time Bomb Schiff Owners’ Equivalent of Rent: The Fed and BLS Gaming the System MyBudget 360 Watching the watchdogs MW Commentary: Public trust eroding, bit by bit U.S. Financial Data, May 9 Issue FRBSL Analysis: Good economic news something of a mirage AP Schwab Market Perspective ~ Chart: Spending on essentials at record Barely surviving on credit cards CNN Federal regulators close Arkansas bank ANB Financial AP -- FDIC Press Release: “ANB Financial is the third FDIC-insured institution to fail this year” Markets Brief: Wall Street's Still Crunchy Forbes Market for offloading bad debt balloons Times Online “Capital adequacy rules under Basel II have made some banks think harder and longer about holding this debt on their balance sheets” Private equity steps in as credit crisis nails the banks Telegraph Ex-Treasury Chief Urges Pause for Rate Cuts Caijing John Snow said central banks are running out of options for responding to the credit squeeze. Credit Crunch Watch Oxford Economics Big Rescues Can Work. Just Ask New York NYT (Morgsenson) Property Mogul Poised to Take a Second Fall WSJ What Could I Get for my House? Please, Don’t Ask NYT Losing a Home, Then Losing All Out of Storage NYT The Journey of One Home in an Epic Housing Bubble Dr. HB Mortgage Holders Find It Hard to Walk Away From Their Homes NYT The incredible shrinking house CNN FedEx Lowers Fourth-Quarter Profit Forecast Because of Surging Fuel Costs BL Could shareholders boot out Yahoo's board? MW For 9 months' work, Pep Boys ex-CEO gets $17.2 million AP Coming Soon, the Samsung Washington Monument! Slate Emperor Soros’s new clothes Spectator Soros is still a brilliant player of markets - but as a philosopher, frankly, he’s incomprehensible Jim Rogers says he'll buy gold at US$750 China Post (BL) Gas Prices Send Surge of Riders to Mass Transit NYT Parking lots at many bus and light rail stations are suddenly overflowing Oil’s surge: what’s behind it and what it means for Saudi Arabia Jadwa PDF Gasoline, Diesel, and Oil Zeal A Peek Behind the Price at the Pump NYT Brazil Opec plan lifts oil to $126 per barrel Times Online Hints of a rift at OPEC about production IHT OPEC: The $1-trillion club G&M House price crash is here, say City banks ThisisMoney Japan's collision course G&M “Japan is on a massive collision course between two fundamental realities” Wholesale Prices Make Biggest Jump in 9 Years Korea Times “The nation has technically entered stagflation” IMF cuts Chinese economic growth forecasts to about 9% Xinhua Russia's Medvedev Gets Down to Business Spiegel Russia foreign investors unfazed by rows with West Reuters 'It's not over' warnings prompt FTSE fall Telegraph Cap and trade in America DB Research PDF US climate policy at a crossroads China to Develop Currency Derivatives This Year, Official Says BL
Asia Stocks Post Weekly Drop on Concern Oil, U.S. Slowdown to Erode Profit BL Paulson, Trichet Signal Satisfaction at Dollar's Recovery BL Goodbye to the Dollar? Rogoff Weekly Trends Scotia Weekly Focus - May 9-16, 2007 Danske PDF
Friday May 9, 2008 U.S. stocks slide as credit crisis rears its head MW Crude rallies on to record high above $126 a barrel MW AIG Declines as Insurer Gives `No Assurance' Credit Writeoffs Have Ended BL U.S. Trade Deficit Smaller Than Forecast as Imports Drop Most in Six Years BL Census The dollar danger is not over yet FT Are Earnings Estimates Realistic? Comstock That Market Rebound? Sucker's Rally, Says Morgan Stanley Blodget Canned Food, Guns and a Ham Radio WSJ Blog Soc Gen: “We are on the cusp of an equity meltdown that will slash and shred portfolios like Freddie Krueger.” Rebates Will Fail to Spark U.S. Economy as Fuel Prices Soar, Survey Says BL A Return to the 1970s? Washington Independent How the Fed's High-Wire Bank Rescues Increase Inflation Risks G-7 Central Bankers Stymied by "Crude Oil Vigilantes" Dorsch G7 loses grip on global policy Asia Times Economists: Weak Growth Ahead WSJ Video Bankruptcies and defaults gather pace FT The US is leading the global default rate for companies UBS's Exit Strikes at Heart of Municipal-Bond Market Mysak U.S. Financial Data, May 8 Issue FRBSL Jim Rogers Says Financial Crisis Hasn't Hit Its Worst BL Rogers Wants You To Buy USD “I doubt that we're half way through the financial crisis'' Worst of credit crunch over: Greenspan Reuters When Small Biz Can't Get a Loan Business Week Slide Show: Trouble is Brewing With lending tight, more entrepreneurs are turning to controversial "merchant cash advances" A Little Pity, Please, for Lenders NYT (Norris) Mortgage crisis seeps to prime loans USAT About 2.3% of prime loans were 60 days' past due in February, the highest level in at least a decade. That's up from 1.4% a year ago. Three Things that Won't Help the Foreclosure Crisis CEPR Homeowner Rescue Bill Passed Despite Veto Threat NYT Questions of Rent Tactics by Private Equity NYT (Morgenson) AIG's Need to Raise $12.5 Billion After Loss Renews Doubts About Sullivan BL Citigroup considers $400bn asset sale FT Coming soon: Citigroup's grand plan Fortune Euthanizing Bear NYTD They finally took Bear Stearns out behind the woodshed and ended its lingering misery Lampert, Wood Reveal Failings of `Concentrated' Hedge-Fund Bets BL Kerkorian Signals More Ford Stock Purchases Beyond 20-Million-Share Offer BL Bank lay-offs - First ink, now blood Economist Banks fear demand for corporate loans IHT Banks have pledged to lend companies more than $1 trillion. And because most of those loans have not been made yet...the banks have not accounted for them on their balance sheets. The death of ExxonMobil? Jubak Fundamentals Remain Negative For Small Cap Stocks BCA Research Postcard: Omaha TIME The Inside Scoop! How Warren Buffett Became a Soap Star CNBC The $35 Million ‘Shadow Yacht’ WSJ Blog Crude Oil Rises to Record Above $125 as Nigeria Violence Draws Speculators BL Oil bears hard to find after market's record run Reuters “Those signed up to bubble theories, or currency effects or speculative effect theories would no doubt speak in grim tones of a likely crash. Mind you, they did that at $30, $40, $50, $60, $70, $80, $90, $100 and $110 and so I suppose it is too late at $120 for them to now change tack” Oil executives expect lower prices AP Record oil prices bring fresh interest in L.A.'s wells USAT Rice Gains for Sixth Day on Increased Demand, Damage From Myanmar Cyclone BL Jim Rogers Still Bullish On Commodities DJ China Money: Trends shift against bond market Reuters Ministry sees rising risk of currency reversing Standard Beijing residential land prices up 22% in Q1 China Daily China's Export Growth Slows, Easing Pressure on Yuan BL Government responds to the mortgage gloom Times Online Repossession orders climb by 17% BBC Australia's Central Bank Raises Inflation Forecasts, Cuts Growth Estimate BL Templeton's Mobius Says Korean Stocks to Outperform, Won Is Undervalued BL Ten years on the EMU is more unworkable than ever Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Canadian Job machine cranks on G&M Argentine lending - Who needs credit? Economist Ex-Qantas executive to plead guilty to price-fixing plot: US AFP
Thursday May 8, 2008 AIG to Raise $12.5 Billion of Capital After Reporting Second Straight Loss BL Euro Rebounds Against U.S. Dollar After Trichet Highlights Inflation Risks BL Europe and US unite on stronger dollar FT JClaims Decline Disconnect Morgan Stanley We think the economic fallout and resulting downturn is only beginning. The risk of redefining recession CNN Recessions Often Begin With Positive GDP Data Big Picture The Dreaded R-Word The American The costs of inflation Reuters (Saft) Lipsky of IMF Says Inflation Is Back BL Soros: Market Will Retest Its Lows WSJ Blog Big Money Bearish But Insiders Bullish Forbes (Trimtabs) Happy Days Aren't Quite Here Again Barron’s New Headwinds Surfacing Kass Blame the models VOX Bernanke's Nightmare Chart North The Fed's deformed maturity Asia Times Fed Chooses Wall Street Over Main Street Minyanville Implications if the Fed were to Pay Interest on Reserves BBH Rainy Day Savings Darken US Outlook EDC U.S. Infrastructure: On the pot-holed highway to hell FT Lazear sees no recession for US economy WSJ By Year's End, Junk Will Be Sunk CFO Drooling Vultures Circle Leveraged Loan Market Gilbert Vallejo Residents See Service Cuts as Bankruptcy Looms for California Town BL Singapore banks cite global turmoil as profit falls AFP State Street faces subprime legal bill blowout BL Banks raise fees for 7m current account holders Times Online Is Fannie Mae Putting Taxpayers (and Homeowners) at Risk to Aid Banks? Baker Fannie is now allowing homeowners to refinance amounts equal to 120% of appraised value. Will taxpayers be on the hook for subprime crisis? CS Monitor Federally linked entities like Fannie Mae now back 98 percent of home loans sold by banks. Regulator: Fannie, Freddie bailout not likely CNN Wave of lawsuits over credit crisis could hit a wall IHT (NYT) Map of misery Economist America may well be only halfway through the house-price bust Congress debates aid package for troubled homeowners USAT More Homes Hit Market in April WSJ 3 Major Psychological Reasons Why Housing is Still Declining Dr. HB What's Up (Down) with Rents? Smith Blog The Housing Crisis Is Over WSJ Wal-Mart, Costco Sales Gain as Shoppers Seek Bargains BL Microsoft sets sights on Facebook takeover Times Online Toyota issues a bleak profit forecast AP Automaker’s first annual profit decline in seven years Boom in 'Dark Pool' Trading Networks Causing Headaches on Wall St. WSJ (Complete via G) IPOs: Back from the Dead? Business Week News Corp sees economy hurting advertising Reuters Fair Value Rule Triggers $800 Million Loss CFO Berkshire's Charlie Munger says investors should lower expectations CP "There will be a hell of a mess in these derivative books eventually" Is your money fund safe? Fortune Estimates that SIV-related paper now makes up less than 2% of money market fund holdings May Disciplinary Actions Against Six Firms and One Individual NYSE Insider trading probe focuses on U.S. law firm G&M The Economics of Naked Short Selling CATO PDF Are regulators only now realizing how unfair certain credit card practices are? WP Feud: Oil in the Family Vanity Fair Gold Gains in London Trading as Investors Add to Fund Holdings BL Low Gold Vol Is Seasonal UBS India gold demand modest; festival near end Reuters Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion Simmons PDF Peak Oil Doomsters debunked, end of civilization called off Fabius Maximus Diesel prices at full throttle push refiners to churn out more MW Gas hits new high - up 20% in last year CNN Rice Jumps on Myanmar Crop Damage; Malaysia Begins Importing From Thailand BL Warning sign behind the rice price rally MW Ethanol Fantasy Fuels a Food-Price Nightmare Berry The Threat of Global Food Shortages - Part I - Part II YALE Global Potash CEO rides boom in food prices G&M William Doyle's stock options now worth almost $600-million -- a value never seen before for an executive at a public company in Canada China `highly concerned' about rising international grain prices AP China caps prices for fertiliser, ingredients-NDRC Reuters India Bans Rubber, Soybean Oil Futures to Cool Prices BL Yuan plunges on rein speculation Standard “The government might consider to depreciate the yuan in a one-off act so as to offset appreciation expectations” ECB Keeps Benchmark Interest Rate at Six-Year High of 4% to Curb Inflation BL Bank of England holds base rate at 5% Times Online ECB, Battling Inflation, May Keep Rate at 4% as Growth Slows BL Retail Sales in Europe Drop by Record as Faster Inflation Curbs Spending BL Pound drops as bets go on a new rate cut ThisisMoney Asia's `Euro' Is Short on Trust, Political Will Pesek Japan should sell 80 percent of FX reverses to cut risk Reuters Loonie headed for a steep fall, poll forecasts Reuters Consumer Watch Canada: Holding Onto Cash CIBC PDF Mind the gap Deloitte How will the UK’s current account deficit be resolved? Rolls-Royce Targets China's Really-Rich Business Week
Wednesday May 7, 2008 U.S. Consumer Debt Surges $15.3 Billion as Economy Spurs Credit-Card Use BL FED U.S. Stocks Decline, Led by Financials on New Securities Rules BL SEC Will Require Wall Street Banks to Disclose Capital, Liquidity Levels BL MBIA Hasn't Sent $1.1 Billion to Insurance Unit to Preserve Its AAA Rating BL Pending U.S. Sales of Existing Homes Fall 1%, Second Straight Monthly Drop BL NAR Fannie Mae may lose $2 bln-$2.5 bln more this year: FBR Reuters Legg posts loss, first in 25 years Baltimore Sun Productivity in U.S. Rises 2.2%, More Than Forecast, as Companies Cut Jobs BL Feldstein Says Economy Is `Sliding' Into Recession, Housing Biggest Risk BL Food For Thought Absolute Return Letter - May 2008 PDF Whatever happened to the Great Depression? Times Online (Baker) Dollar Smirks in Asia Morgan Stanley Bear market reality check revisits Wall Street Reuters Still good idea to sell in May, go away Harrison NYSE April Month End Short Interest BeSpoke A Rally With Serious Muscle Russell Russell now says he was bullish in 2002. Oh yeah? Draining national prosperity Bear’s Lair Mogambo - Schoon - Joe Average Paulson sees markets unfreezing WSJ Merrill's Thain: Credit crisis easing Reuters Credit crisis over? Not likely MSN Vallejo, California City Officials Vote to File for Bankruptcy BL Corporate defaults on upswing as debt comes due USAT U.S. real estate: When will sector bottom out? NB Financial PDF Countrywide Pulls Home-Equity Lines as Property Values Fall in Las Vegas BL Treasury Pressures Mortgage Firms WSJ How fat CEO pay fed the mortgage mess MSN D.R. Horton posts $1.3 bln loss; cuts dividend Reuters Hell Hath Frozen Over. David Lereah Proclaims Housing not Hitting Bottom Dr. HB Cisco beats but gives lukewarm sales outlook Fortune UBS Faces U.S. Tax Evasion Probe; Senior Employee Is Detained as Witness BL Tight Credit Worries for a Hotel and Mall Operator NYT Bear’s Family Feud: Quarrel Erupts Between the Bank’s Elder Statesmen NYT Bear Analysts Irked By Severance Memo TheStreet Icahn, Peltz Used Morgan Stanley Options in Gaining Motorola, Heinz Stakes BL The strategy avoids FTC-mandated filings that would tip off the targets and reduces the amount of cash needed. SEC's New Bond Case Says Swaps Aren't Outside Law Mysak Are private equity deals falling apart? CNBC Buffett and Gates on the Economy FOX Video We're now paying for Greenspan's lunch East Valley Tribune Gold near one-week high on oil, ETF holdings up Reuters An increase in gold holdings in the world's largest ETF for bullion, StreetTRACKS Gold Shares, suggested investors were putting their money back into gold... IMF moves toward gold sales AFP Gold Longs Fall Further UBS India Gold Demand May Revive on Festival, Price Drop BL Some see oil at $150 a barrel this year WSJ Iran issues add to fears of $200 a barrel Times Online Gas Price to Peak in June ~ Gas or gamble? Economy forces some to choose Predictions for gas, oil prices keep going up AP Peak oil explains lack of UFOs Leonard Saudi Fears Of High Oil Prices Fade With Demand Dow Jones Expect a Jolt When Opening the Electric Bill WSJ Fed rate cuts helped boost food prices, spark shortages MW Rice Isn't Oil, Even If Some Asians Think It Is Pesek ADB to provide 500 million dollars to combat food crisis AFP Ethanol benefits questioned as food costs rise AP Commodity Monthly: Fundamentals at play Danske PDF Congress eyes steel pennies, nickels as cost-saving move USAT Asia Faces an Inflation Quandary Asia Sentinel Losing the plot on inflation Rediff (Business Standard) Now the chickens have come home to roost, and we are down to the depressing litany of government actions attacking speculators, hoarders and exporters as the way to stop inflation China Plans Wage Hikes; Could Threaten Inflation AFP Inflation expected to go down in Q2 China Daily Thousand estate agents closed this year ThisisMoney Estate agencies are closing at a rate of up to 150 a week as house sales plunge. Lloyds warns house prices may fall 10pc Telegraph The Australian debt hangover TheAge Reserve Bank acts on market turbulence NZ Herald Gulf currency bets resurrect Islamic bonds Gulf-Times Japan and China seek to build trust despite feuds Reuters
Fed Seeks Authority to Pay Interest on Reserves, Pumping Cash Into Markets BL Open Markets and the Fed Funds Rate FRBSL PDF
Tuesday May 6, 2008 Dollar Gains as Fed's Hoenig Says Inflation Pressure May Spur Rate Rise BL -- Perspectives on the Recent Financial Turmoil Fed Hoenig PDF Housing picture worsens as Fannie sees price drop AP Oil Passes $122 on $200 Oil Prediction, Supply Concerns AP Canadian building permits fall unexpectedly G&M It’s Going to Get Worse Newsweek Economist David Lereah was once the housing market's biggest cheerleader. Now he says the bust isn't near over, and home prices still have a long way to fall. A Needle in the Groove??? Bondsonline Like GDP, devil is in the details Merrill PDF Fannie Mae Has $2.19 Billion Loss; Shares Rise on Regulator's Capital Plan BL Favorable Impact of Fed's Attempt to Ease Credit Market Conditions Not Visible, As Yet NT P -- The April 2008 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices FED “The net fractions of domestic banks reporting tighter lending standards were close to, or above, historical highs for nearly all loan categories in the survey...” Has the Dollar Hit Rock Bottom? Spiegel FX update - Struggling between greed and fear (chartpack) Danske IMM Positions PDFs Las Vegas used to be a recession-proof oasis. Not anymore Newsweek Tahoe casinos' owner in trouble SacBee Reuters: “The Chapter 11 filing marks one of the largest bankruptcies so far this year and underscores a decline in the fortunes of casinos...” Wave of Rate Cuts Complicates Where To Stash Cash Now WSJ Bankers’ survey highlights liquidity shortage FT UBS to cut 8,000 jobs after $12 billion loss Times Online Swiss Re Profit Drops 53%, More Than Estimates, on CDO-Linked Writedowns BL BlackRock to buy $15B subprime debt from UBS MW GMAC Buys Time for ResCap Home Mortgage Unit as Threat of Bankruptcy Looms BL GE to stop financing boat, motor home purchases Reuters First Marblehead cuts 500 jobs Boston Globe U.S. Home Values Drop 8%, Leaving More Borrowers `Underwater' on Mortgages BL Hidden Mortgage Risks Abound in U.S. Home Market Wasik Repossessions set to soar to highest level for 17 years Independent Gold price suppression scheme Mogambo Butler Goldman's Murti Says $150 to $200 Oil Is `Likely' in Next Six to 24 Months BL Clinton: OPEC 'can no longer be a cartel' Politico Speculators knock OPEC off oil-price perch Asia Times An effective rebuttal to warnings about Peak Oil? Fabius Maximus Big Government Responsible for High Gas Prices Paul Looking the Chinese dragon in the mouth Telegraph Australia is growing rich from China's insatiable appetite for coal and other minerals. UN chief says he is moving `at full speed' on food crisis AP Pork and Chicken Prices May Rise in Next Wave of Food Inflation ABC Yahoo CEO open to more Microsoft talks Reuters Yahoo may see hedge fund heat Yahoo faces shareholder wrath Fortune Why Microsoft caved (for now) Fortune China may agree 85% iron ore price rise China Daily Grease bandits strike as biofuel demand rises CS Monitor China's markets braces for massive share inflow: report AFP Chinese stocks still aren't attractive Hulbert George Clooney Is Trumping Asia's Poverty Fight Pesek Give globalisation a human face King A strategy to promote healthy globalisation FT (Summers) Banks’ Earnings Plunge 49% in 1st Quarter Korea Times Etrade fined over Allco dealings Australian Alstom investigated for bribes: report Reuters Embattled Shermag seeks creditor protection G&M
Monday May 5, 2008 Oil futures climb past $120 to a fresh record MW Bernanke Urges Action to Avert Further Foreclosures BL Speech Stocks in U.S. Drop; Countrywide Falls on Concern Sale May Not Go Through BL Service Industries in U.S. Unexpectedly Grow, Helping Offset Factory Slump BL ISM Yahoo CEO facing possible rebellion after spurning Microsoft AP Monday Morning Outlook: 3 Reasons to Be Bullish Schaeffers Deja Vu Hussman Where Are The Investors? Cross Currents Bernanke gets it wrong Jackson Debt and monetary policy — is there a link? Economy May Face Prolonged Pain, History Suggests WSJ (Ip) The Rise of the Rest -- ‘The Post-American World’ Newsweek Consumers' exhaustion leaves Fed in a quandary JSOnline ‘Suckers' Rally' Signaled After S&P 500 April Surge BL The biggest rally in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in more than four years is luring investors to equities from cash, just as options traders are betting the advance will evaporate. Beware the double AP Success Breeds Failure NYT (Krugman) Gallup Daily: Economic Pessimism Continues Gallup Debt on Arrival NYP Greenspan Sees U.S. in `Pale Recession,' May Last Through Year Reuters Robert Shiller Q&A Portfolio Downgrades show storm isn't over WSJ Former IMF Chief De Rato Says Global Credit Crisis Nearing End BL Credit crunch fails to produce the feared economic catastrophe Times Online Risks mount for stressed traders as markets gyrate Reuters How to Clear a Road to Redemption NYT (Morgenson) Credit Crunch Sends More Consumers To the Sidelines WSJ (Complete via Google jump) Credit crisis shows that banks need wise men not wide boys Telegraph More big losses expected from Fannie, Freddie G&M UBS May Eliminate 8,000 Jobs as First-Quarter Net Loss Exceeds $11 Billion BL Credit crunch expands to cash-out refinancing, investment properties and vacation homes LAT Government Intensifies Mortgage Investigation NYT Another Full Year Of Housing Pain? WSJ Stop Saving Now and Spend Those Rebates! The Home Refinancing Well Has Run Dry Dr. HB Yahoo set to plunge after Microsoft's $46bn bid is withdrawn Independent AOL contacts Microsoft as Steve Ballmer walks away from Yahoo! bid Times A Yahoo Shareholder on What Might Have Been NYT Miller: “Press reports that major shareholders would have been willing to take $35 are probably not far off the mark.” Yahoo may face lawsuit flood after talks collapse Reuters The man they call the Oracle holds them spellbound again Independent Buffett will look at RBS insurance unit MW Lenders deserve to suffer, Buffett says AP Buffett to fans: opportunity exists but Berkshire may not be best bet WSJ Local stores outlast Home Depot in Vt. town AP Nearly half of this year’s IPOs pulled Dow Jones US art market beginning to feel strain FT Oh say, is that banner made in the U.S.A.? Stateline Metals Surge as Power Rationing Turns Out Lights in World's Biggest Mines BL Bugged gold bugs show their grit Brimelow Oil rises on Nigeria, Iran supply concerns Reuters Survey: gas prices up about 15 cents over past 2 weeks AP Asia fears rising poverty, social unrest from soaring food prices AFP Central bankers doubt they can act on food prices Reuters Sprott Hedge Fund IPO May Signal Top of Canada Commodity Rally BL IRS wants piece of action if you sell old coins Orlando Sentinel Japan, S. Korea, China Mull $80 Billion Reserve Pool BL Kyodo: “The so-called ASEAN-plus-three finance ministers are expected to adopt a statement on the agreement...” Europe's Price Surge Persuades Politicians to Back ECB on Interest Rates BL India May Suspend Food-Futures Trading to Tackle Inflation, Appease Allies BL Chidambaram: “If rightly or wrongly people perceive that commodities- futures trading is contributing to a speculation-driven rise in prices, then in a democracy you will have to heed that voice” End of boom will be painful Financial Post Goodness help Canada when the commodity boom eventually ends. PM adviser fears 'mortgage rationing' Telegraph Investors spurn equities for cash Australian
Weekend Edition (May 3-4, 2008) Microsoft Withdraws Proposal to Acquire Yahoo! Microsoft Ballmer: “...your final position insisted on Microsoft paying yet another $5 billion or more, or at least another $4 per share above our $33.00 offer.” Yang: “With the distraction of Microsoft's unsolicited proposal now behind us, we will be able to focus all of our energies on executing the most important transition in our history” Key U.S. Data Releases and Events Global Insight Lies and Other Statistics Mauldin The Inflation Conundrum Morgan Stanley Siegfried & Roy & Bernanke North Ben Bernanke is No Paul Volcker Schiff Which Will It Be? Steve Forbes Revisting Financial Arbitrage Capitalism Noland Buffett cautions on long-term returns MW Buffett Says Worst of Crisis Over for Wall Street, Individuals May Suffer BL Buffett says he bought $4-billion of auction-rate debt G&M Berkshire net income falls 64 percent because of derivatives AP PDF “Berkshire does not actively trade or exchange these contracts, but rather intends to hold such contracts until expiration.” Berkshire's Stake in Moody's Doesn't Conflict With Bond Unit, Buffett Says Warren Buffett--In 1974 Forbes Buffett’s in the cards Reuters Fed moves on credit card crackdown CNN Legislators could have quite a fight on their hands. Previous efforts trying to reform the industry have largely failed... Abandoning the USS Titanic Asia Times Mogambo - Harding It’s Newer Homes That Stand Empty as Vacancies Rise NYT (Norris) Housing Prices Near or at Bottom? Luskin Credit Crunch Watch Oxford Microsoft ups Yahoo offer above $31 in bid for friendly deal AP NAB eyes $1.1bn Citigroup, ABN buys Australian Ford to offer buyouts to 1,300 workers in Ill., Ky. AP Bear Stearns second brush with bankruptcy Fortune The firm wasn't out of the woods even after its initial agreement to merge with JPMorgan, a filing shows. Pandit's hedge fund to be restructured -Citigroup Reuters Procter & Gamble Sues to Block J&J's Sales of Strips Used to Whiten Teeth BL Retailers bait shoppers with rebate specials AP Report Earnings, and Watch the Stock Fall NYT (Hulbert) Life in Mars: reclusive dynasty behind one of world's most famous brands Guardian Rich/Poor Income Gap Widening To Chasm CBS For Democrats, Instincts Differ on Economics NYT Commodity Prices in Historical Perspective Wachovia PDF Forget gas: Get ready for $4 a gallon milk CNN Surplus U.S. food supplies dry up USAT All salmon fishing banned on West Coast SF Chronicle It is the first total closure since commercial fishing started in the Bay Area in 1848. RICEPEC: Thailand’s Dangerous Idea Asia Sentinel Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation Financial Sense FTC to investigate allegations of oil market manipulation BL Commodities enter bubble territory Independent Who needs a fancy hybrid? Get a camel! Leonard India inflation hits 42-month-high of 7.57 pct AFP Inflation Nears 7% on Price-Controlled Necessities Chosun Fear of Stagflation Looms Korea Times Large SOEs told to be ready for tough times China Daily Hong Kong’s Bureaucrats and the Stock Exchange Asia Sentinel China GDP could be 2.5 times that of the US by 2030 China Daily Doubting Soros on China Dorfman Sharp rise in number of companies seeking protection Times Online United States is drawing up plans to strike on Iranian insurgency camp Times Online
Weekly Trends - FX Outlook Scotia PDFs April 2008 Employment Situation: Details More Pessimistic Than Headlines NT PDF Futures Traders Bet on Dollar Gain For First Time Since 2005 BL
Friday May 2, 2008 Gold futures end higher for the day, lower for the week MW Bush says economy is going to `come on.' AP Apollo's Linens 'n Things Files for Bankruptcy After Two Years of Losses BL Ts Decline as Jobs Data Reinforce Speculation Fed Cuts Are on Hold B Gold Trades Lower Fed Expands Cash-Loan Auctions to $75 Billion to Ease Liquidity Pressures BL FED Bernanke, Geithner Facing More Bailout Demands After 'Rogue' Bear Rescue BL U.S. Loses 20,000 Jobs in April; Unemployment at 5% BL BLS Slowly I Turned Contrary Investor Its All About Housing Comstock The summer of content State Street PDF When a wise old bird like the Bank of England declares the worst of the credit crunch is past it behoves the young and shrill to take note. A double-dip downturn? Wait and see Jubak U.S. Offers 0% for First Time on Inflation-Linked Savings Bonds BL Ben's bind Economist Disentangling the links between the Fed, the falling dollar and the soaring price of the world's commodities Pimco's Gross: Fed Could Learn from European Banks CNBC The Shrinking Discretionary Dollar Wachovia PDF Consumers are now putting close to 57 cents of every dollar they spend into “core” needs such as housing, medical care, food and transportation, leaving a record low 43 cents out of each dollar to spending on other items. Dollar Reserve Status Is Tale of Fading Glory BL Euro shows signs of end to bull run FT The twilight of irredeemable debt Fekete Consumers ease up on spending habits Orlando Sentinel U.S. Financial Data, May 1 Issue FRBSL Sentiment has improved, but lots of financial problems remain Economist Determining Who Rides the Lifeboat NYT (Norris) Kuwait Sovereign Fund May Boost Citi, Merrill Stakes BL Credit crunch handcuffs banks, Carney says G&M Worst of global credit crisis over: Westpac chief Australian The Fed and Your Home Schwab Don’t bet on cheaper mortgages. The good news: low-rate home equity credit lines. Another Full Year Of Housing Pain? WSJ Home Run: Canseco Lets House Go Into Foreclosure WSJ Inventory and Foreclosures: Is The Bottom Really In? Smith Blog Condo sales in Boston drop off Boston Globe Microsoft May Run Out of Time as Yahoo Considers Tighter Ties With Google BL Warren Buffett to draw biggest crowd ever G&M Berkshire estimates that 30,000 to 32,000 people, up from 27,000 last year, will fill the Qwest Center in Omaha for what has become known as “Woodstock for Capitalists.” Buffett Plots $40 Billion Spree as Credit Crunch Hinders Competing Bidders BL Buffett goes to Wharton Fortune Probe into Buffett agency holding Times Online Bank of America May Balk at Guarantee on $38 Million of Countrywide Debt BL Forty percent of stocks underpriced according to research firm Hulbert Algo gone wild adds up to trouble for hedge funds G&M How old U.S. Steel leapt off history's scrap pile BL Siteman Center looks to revolutionize proton therapy St. Louis Dispatch Investors sue Citi over muni bond hedge funds Reuters Bear Market in Greenspan? WSJ B What’s behind the Slide in Gold and Silver? Dorsch What has driven up oil prices CS Monitor As Pump Prices Soar, Buyers Flock to Small Cars NYT AutoFlash Scotia In what analysts are calling a first, about one in five vehicles sold in the U.S. was a compact or subcompact car during April Iran Doubles Oil Stored in Tankers, Pushing Up Rates bl ADB to meet amid food crisis, growing poverty AFP Food Crisis Erases Ethiopians' Gains, Diverting Funds From Health, Schools BL Japan running short of butter Japan Today House prices fall on UK income squeeze Telegraph Housing slump: The week it all went from bad to worse Building Asia Getting Fed Up With Bernanke's Rate Cuts Pesek HK lenders wary of matching Fed Standard Hong Kong’s Bureaucrats and the Stock Exchange Asia Sentinel In a pickle Economist A monetary-policy conundrum familiar elsewhere, new to Japan Angry China Economist Cover The recent glimpses of a snarling China should scare the country's government as much as the world Risky Real Estate in China China Economic Review Regulator says to curb over-speculation in IPO sales Xinhua Capitalism in China Called a 'Work in Progress' Law.com China opens one of world's largest bridges China Daily Property sector hit by fear of falling rents Telegraph Bank of Ireland lifts mortgage rates RTE Dundee Bank 'a mistake,' Goodman concedes G&M
Thursday May 1, 2008 U.S. stocks rally in delayed applause for Fed MW Commodities Tumble Most in 6 Weeks as Dollar Gain Curbs Demand BL Investment firms pull back on emergency Fed borrowing AP Ford, GM, Chrysler U.S. Sales Slump, Led by Trucks, SUVs; Toyota Has Gain BL Dollar extends gains after ISM data not as bad as expected MW ISM Home Depot Pares Growth Plans, Will Close 15 Stores, Fire 1,300 Employees BL Gulf States May Drop Currency Pegs to Dollar, Kuwait Finance Minister Says BL U.S. Consumer Spending Advanced 0.4% in March; Core Prices Increased 0.2% BL BEA The savings rate worsened to 0.2 percent U.S. Unemployment Benefit Rolls Exceed 3 Million, a 4-Year High BL JClaims Layoffs jump to 19-month high in April MW Committee to Save the World Plans 10th Reunion Baum Wealth Enhancement and Storage AEI (Makin) Dollar Rises to Five-Week High Against Euro as Fed Signals Rate-Cut Pause BL ECB Sketches a Line in Currency Sands at $1.60 Gilbert Recession's here, economist Kasriel says Pioneer Local Fed is runnning out of room to help the economy Crudele Bernanke takes one more gamble Asia Times Mark Mobius Says Fed May Cut Interest Rates to 1%, Dollar Is `Bombed Out' BL Soon Fed up? Breaking Views Fed tone may send food, gasoline prices higher Reuters Poole, Bies Say More Fed Rate Cuts Wouldn't Stem Slowdown Much BL Fed Has Bought Enough Anti-Recession Insurance Berry Fed leaves newsletters unperturbed Brimelow Blame Congress for Inflation WSJ Four mega-dangers international financial markets face VOX Investment Flash: Taxes - A Good Reason To Sell Lamont Unstoppable Credit Contraction Mish Puplava - Ash `Dumbest Idea Ever' Embraced by State Pensions to Plug Nationwide Deficit BL “t's like taking a second mortgage on a house you haven't paid for yet.” Paulson Says U.S. Credit-Market Crisis Is `Closer to the End' BL Sam Zell Sees Commercial Real Estate Investment Accelerating BL Bargain hunters return to mortgage-backed securities, so is the credit crisis now over? Inde Credit crunch losses may be half market estimates: BoE G&M The return of high-risk optimism FT Bank predicts credit crunch will hit UK hard Times Online BoE sounds alarm on commericial property Telegraph Vacancy Rate Hits New Record, Price Plunge Continues CEPR "The rate of price decline will destroy almost $6 trillion in housing wealth this year." Recasting a housing rescue MW High cost of ownership argues for plan to boost rentals: report Mortgage Applications Decrease In Latest MBA Weekly Survey MBA High Design, Downscaled WP Gold Declines in London as Dollar Rises; Platinum Also Slides BL The Ongoing Bull Market Aden Sisters Oil to hit $200 a barrel despite rising supply Times Online Qatar's energy minister is the latest expert to predict fuel prices will hit new records Non-OPEC oil producers hampered in efforts to boost output AFP K+S Shows How Widening Food Shortage Means Potash Shares Can't Find Peak BL Tension in Egypt shows potency of food crisis USAT U.S. eyes shift away from corn ethanol CS Monitor Blood Barrels Foreign Affairs (Preview) Why Oil Wealth Fuels Conflict Rising costs reshaping air travel across the USA USAT Chemical suppliers will keep pushing for higher prices Purchasing.com Chart The Fertilizer Commodity Bubble: Potash (POT) Trader’s Narrative Is a bubble developing in commodities? Lloyds Gold May Glitter, but It Doesn't Stack up as a Long-term Investment Wharton Fewer latte runs sends Starbucks 2Q profit down 28 percent AP Exxon Mobil Shares Fall as Profit Falls Short CNBC Drake to Liquidate Largest Hedge Fund After Losing 25%, May Start New Fund BL Two Fatal Flaws in Fair Value CFO Ratings agencies critical of guarantees FT Lawsuit reveals eBay, Craigslist battle WSJ Paying For Failure Forbes Steve Jobs haunted by backdating scandal - again MW The long wait for Icahn’s blog is nearly over Reuters A Great Investor Gets a Close Look WSJ Book: Even Buffett Isn't Perfect Amazon Brazil's Stocks Soar as S& P Upgrades Its Debt Rating AP How to stop worrying and love emerging markets Reuters (Saft) Emerging markets are very likely the next bubble, but don't let that stop you... There's trouble in Tokyo Globe & Mail A massive national debt. Withered stock prices. A shrinking work force. Japan's problems have pushed it to the brink, its stock market chief says Three Chinese banks in world's top four: study AFP Growth of exports in steady decline China Daily Alberta home prices sliding Toronto Star Sand into gold: The Gulf booms but not everyone benefits FT Global Auto Report Scotia PDF Chavez calls for steel takeover BBC Raises Venezuelan minimum wage 30 percent Iran stops conducting oil transactions in U.S. dollars AP
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