October 25, 2002
Corporate Earnings Rotten at the Core

GE dismisses S&P's work as just another take on ‘pro forma’ earnings -- a reference to the much-discredited profits game played by analysts and firms that has mostly inflated reported numbers. S&P's exercise is, of course, deflating.

Economist

As the General Electric’s of America continue to sculpt quarterly earnings results, one cannot help but wonder when needed changes to U.S. reporting standards will come to pass. This is not to say that such ‘standards’ should force companies to report the most damaging set of numbers, or that every possible ‘cost’ should always be included within the bottom line. Rather, only that a simple, universal reporting standard is required – a standard that allows companies to promote how wonderful their pro forma financial results are in the footnotes, not within the basic consolidated financial statements.

With this in mind, the biggest threat to corporate earnings going forward is slowly being exposed. No, this threat is not that the anemic U.S. economy will unfurl deflationary pressures which further sap corporate pricing power. Rather, the biggest threat to corporate earnings is that stock options and pension interests will be expensed within headline EPS reports. If these 2 items alone were taken into account S&P 500 earnings results would have been 36% lower for the 12 months ended June 2002.

And while some would argue that expensing options would not have an impact on stocks prices – after all, the data is sitting in the footnotes for all to see – the reality is that the headline EPS results, which are quickly translated into price-to-earnings multiples and flashed across CNBC and Yahoo finance, are what many investors pay attention to, not the footnotes.

Core Earnings


Standard and Poor’s released its first set of ‘core earnings’ numbers yesterday. And while the difference between ‘operational’ to ‘as reported’ to ‘core’ earnings was alarming, even more alarming still was that no sector was immune to the core earnings virus – all sectors would have reported lower core earnings compared to as reported.  Utilities were close to par, reporting only 7 cents in stock option expenses and 1 cent in pension interest. 

12 MONTHS JUNE, 2002 EPS

AS RPT

S&P CORE

 

NET INC

EARNINGS

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

3.07

1.58

CONSUMER STAPLES

4.44

3.79

ENERGY

2.26

1.88

FINANCIALS

10.53

9.81

HEALTH CARE

5.25

4.57

INDUSTRIALS

3.66

1.68

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

-3.66

-5.48

MATERIALS

0.63

-0.51

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

-1.93

-1.26

UTILITIES

2.49

2.41

12 MO JUNE, 2002

26.74

18.48


Using the basic data for the 12 months ended June 30, 2002, the S&P 500 was either trading at 37 times trailing earnings (as reported earnings) or 53.56 times earnings (core results) going into July.  Yes, both numbers are ridiculously high when compared to the historical average for the S&P of 500 (16-17). However, one number, 53.56, is more ridiculous than the other.

Why Webster?
The SEC is expected to nominate candidates on Monday for their new accounting board. Supposedly this board is being created to clean up the accounting industry.

Retirement fund executive John H. Biggs prefers ‘core’ type earnings results – in the past he has voiced that stock options should be expensed (which is further than Bush or Pitt have ever gone).  By contrast, former CIA and FBI head William Webster probably doesn’t know what ‘core’ earnings are and/or the how important the debate on these types of earnings results is. 

Why is someone with no accounting experience even being considered as Chairman? 

Quite frankly, President Bush and Harvey Pitt are against cleaning up the accounting industry. They would rather arrest a few people and then tell investors that the markets are safe, all the numbers are clear and trustworthy, that they have done their jobs. Ironically, or so Pitt and Bush conclude, actually making the numbers clear and trustworthy would make current prices (markets) unsafe due to extreme overvaluation.

Remember, ‘earnings were up and the average P/E is 37’ is more likely to generate investor confidence than earnings ‘were up and the average P/E is 53’ (as per the core earnings example). Although this is a simplistic example, it speaks volumes on why Bush wants to arrest everyone but not change any accounting standards.

Webster Wins
Perhaps the 78 year old Webster will spend his retirement years meeting with the Big 5 4, and asking what all the numbers mean.  Then he can formulate an opinion, suggest changes, and actually do something worthwhile.  Perhaps also, if chosen, Webster will do the media circuit, poke his head into the odd snapshot off a handcuffed accountant, and have his palmed greased by all the lobby groups.  Former SEC member Lynn Turner, who was a POB sympathizer Pitt got rid of, says it this way:

“It's unfortunate that a public servant like Webster is being used as a pawn in a dangerous chess game by the Bush administration and Pitt”. WP

There is nothing wrong with current policing (punishment) standards of the accounting industry – there will always be some who endeavor to break the law for financial gain no matter how harsh the penalty. However, there is something seriously wrong with corporate America and Wall Street accepting fabulous operating results as the gospel as the core numbers rot.


TC Pipelines
TCLP held their conference call after the close on Wednesday.  While the company expects equity income, overall, to be flat next year (Tuscarora offsetting weakness at NBP), it is worth remembering that a large chunk of NBP capacity must be recontracted by October 2003 (roughly 40%). Based upon NBP’s call, which was held at 9:30 AM on Wednesday, the climate for renegotiating pipe capacity is not favorable. 

We do not believe that TCLP’s distribution payments are at threat of being reduced.  However, the partnership’s unit price may not continue to escalate because of uncertainties related to NBP contracts. Based upon current unit price trends, we would be reluctant to purchase TCLP above $27. We are not removing TCLP from the Wish List at this time.

WMS Industries
WMS missed EPS estimates by a penny yesterday, but offered guidance of 3-5 cents for the upcoming quarter (first time in 02 the company has offered guidance).  While WMS shares could come under pressure, we believe that the company is taking firm steps towards a full recovery from its software anomalies.

Earlier in 2002 we believed that the company would be making ‘progress’ if they could simply stop balance sheet deterioration.  By contrast, and as the companies bounce off of a low of $9.28 a share will attest to, today ‘progress’ is defined by improving earnings, trimming costs, and reacquiring the trust of its customers.  If the company does not continue to make progress it is likely that its stock price could retest its former lows.

While corporate buy backs and Redstone Sumner buying have certainly helped support WMS’s stock price it will take continued company achievements to warrant a rally in WMS shares.


Disclosure: Brady Willett & Todd Alway are stakeholders in all Wish List companies, including TCLP and WMS.

BWillett@fallstreet.com

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