July 8, 2002 |
Since I don't work for the Royal Bank 1 let me start off by stating that the gold market is manipulated. To be sure, the reason why central banks exist is to 'counterfeit' and 'inflate' the supply of money (see Rothbard 2). And while the connotations behind these 'trigger' words are open for debate, it is undeniable that bankers become worried whenever people begin to choose gold over their brand of money (paper).
The Manipulation
Central banks endeavor to tarnish gold's 'safe haven' reputation to ensure that during times of crisis people will transfer assets from paper to paper (i.e. Dollars to Euros, Loonies to Japanese Bonds, etc), not paper to gold. Although a matter of speculation, the banks have succeeded in depressing the price of gold by short selling large quantities of the metal in the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market.3 The basic conspiracy theory goes on to state that these derivatives contracts, estimated by some to be 10,000-15,000+ tonnes of gold, are not only used by central and bullion banks (and their partners) to control the price of gold but to also generate profits (ala the gold carry trade).
When you realize that central banks must, at times, regard gold as the 'competition' the conspiracy theories are certainly plausible. Furthermore, knowing that the OTC derivatives market is largely unregulated this market would appear to be the market the banks use to carry out their schemes.
Those that are skeptical of the great gold conspiracy need only ask themselves one question: is there a better way for central banks to successfully market their brand of money than to wipe out the competition?
"Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise."
G reenspan - July 24, 1998, before the House Banking Committee.
The Manipulation Paradox
Contrary to the conclusions of the GATA, just because the gold market is manipulated this does not necessarily mean that the price of gold is destined to surge when, and if, the manipulation 'ends'. To be sure, if the manipulation in gold were to ever really end there would be no 'price' for gold. Rather, there would just be gold.
With this in mind, the unscrupulous gold shorts cannot and will not be forced to cover their positions if covering means insolvency. I fully realize this argument is based upon the ability of governments to orchestrate bailouts. Nevertheless, it is logical to assume that if a conspiracy against gold exists today, and shorts are expected to cover tomorrow, that an even greater and more blatant form of manipulation would be unveiled to ensure financial stability.
As such, it is difficult to believe that the gold market will be set 'free' and fiat money will continue to function in its current form. Thus, the manipulation does not end with a paper price for gold.
No End Game In Sight
If the massive OTC short positions held by central and bullion banks is now unraveling, as some have speculated, then why hasn't the market displayed any signs of a blow-up?
Side note: unless we know what the outstanding contracts are a rising price of gold is not a signal of a blow-up!
For certain, if central and bullion banks are losing their shirts wouldn't desperate shorts be unable to borrow even more gold at historical low lease rates? This is exactly what happened during previous gold rallies (lease rates rose) but not what is happening today.
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You could argue that junk rated OTC gold shorts are being granted investment grade rates by corrupt central banks (meaning lease rates are being kept low contrary to logical lending principles). But alas, the conspiratorial mind has to have some limits.
What is probably closer to the truth is that the crafty central banks have adjusted their positions rendering 330 gold a non-threatening number. These types of adjustments are exactly what many gold producers did to their hedge books following the surprise 1999 rally and what many others are doing today.
Furthermore, it may also be the case that many banks are no longer tied to unhedged gold carry trades. Rather, given that gold previously 'bottomed' at $250 an ounce following strong demand from a BOE auction, some of the outstanding OTC gold volume may be in straddle-like (hedged) positions. Since the OTC derivatives market is unregulated we may never know for sure. However, is it that hard to believe that the massive OTC gold short positions have been reduced? Are central and bullion banks run by a pack of completely inept individuals that are unwilling to ever adjust their steadfast opinion that gold must trade below $300 an ounce?
As some of you may remember, a JP Morgan press release stated that they were actually betting on a gold rally as gold neared $300 an ounce. Perhaps this PR was from one loose cannon at the firm and it undermined the plots of the OTC shorts sitting in the closet? Perhaps also JP Morgan, which is the biggest OTC derivatives participant on the planet, was really making money off of a rising price gold.
This Is The End...
I'll admit, I don't know what would happen if investors flocked to gold en masse. To be blunt, it could be an ugly situation if the central banks attempt to beat back gold during a period of sustained hard demand. However, what I do know is that if every American showed up at their bank tomorrow and demanded all their money every bank in America would collapse -- but this doesn't make me run around screaming 'fractional banking will ruin us all!' It probably will mind you, but who knows when…
Point being, even as Congressman Ron Paul 4 and many others have embraced the teachings of Rothbard and the GATA, gold demand (and prices) have not substantially risen. For certain, gold was hovering around $300 an ounce when the GATA began its operations and even though the financial markets today could not be more volatile, the geopolitical situation not more tense, gold is at $310 an ounce.
Perhaps exposing manipulation in the gold market gives people a reason to stay away from gold? If so, then the GATA may be doing the central banks bidding.
The Contradiction: Making Money Off of Gold
The XAU is off its May 29th high by more than 20% and gold is lounging around $310 an ounce after being above $330 an ounce. Quite frankly, investors in gold that take profits in paper are living proof corrupt central banks are winning the fight. At first this may appear to be a myopic way of looking at the situation. Nevertheless, the fact remains that almost all gold bulls have a paper selling price (I would suspect that very few gold investors are hoping for the entire financial system to blow-up).
The Conclusion: Gold Will Always be Manipulated
Until unbacked fiat money no longer exists Royal Bank gold analysts will retract statements that gold is manipulated because they fear for their professional lives. Moreover, until the current FX system consisting of what I like to call 'paper in air' (freely floating currencies) is completely sunk expect Greenspan and others to deftly do everything in their power to keep up the norm – to keep selling gold at key moments in time to tarnish gold's 'safe haven' reputation.
In a world such as this the GATA remains a semi-powerless voice trying to expose the truth. What do I mean by 'semi-powerless'? Well, I am listening to everything the GATA has to say and I agree with a lot of it, but that doesn't mean enough sustained hard demand for gold will ever materialize and spoil the party. Remember that if people move from dollars to Euros the system still operates. If only a tiny amount of gold contracts ever results in delivery the system still operates. If new central bank sales can be lined up to meet or beat new demand the system still operates.
The system, which is central and bullion banks manipulating gold in many different ways, still operates until people hoard gold.
Lastly, ask yourself a serious question: if the fiat money party is ever spoiled what investor really wins in this situation? The people who had the foresight to own gold or the people who own shotguns? Knowing that I only have one chance to do so, I will not predict the end of the world today.
Disclosure: I am a proud owner of gold/silver bullion and coins.
1. June 30, 2002. Bank retracts gold price-fixing report, Telegraph
http://www.dailytelegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=%2Fmoney%2F2002%2F06%2F30%2Fcngold30.xml
2. Murray N. Rothbard has authored many books which accuse central banks of 'counterfieting' money. www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0945466102/qid=1026081002/sr=2-1/stockmarketcrash
3. Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
http://www.gata.org/
4. Congressmabn Ron Paul. See. June 10, 2002 : Gold, Dollars, and Federal Reserve Mischief
http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/welcome.htm
Alan Greenspan and Gold: Lingering Doubts?
http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/2002/march/dl_greenspan.htm
Related
Gold Manipulation Intraday Charts http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/speck062802.html
Gold Production (1900-2001): http://www.goldsheetlinks.com/production2.htm
Gold Demand Statistics: http://www.gold.org/value/markets/Gdt/index.php
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