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Tuesday December 31 As Paper Checks Disappear, So May Some Fed Jobs Washington Post The Federal Reserve has warned employees at its 12 regional banks that some of them might lose their jobs in coming months. Consumer Confidence Down in December Conference Board 2002 was ugly, but investors didn't flee funds USA Today Dangerous Minds? CEPR The Track Record of Economic and Financial Analysts U.S. bankruptcies smash record as fraud takes toll Reuters Dollar Closing Out '02 at Multi-Year Lows Reuters Dangerous deficiencies in Bush's budget deficits Straits Times Bush seems poised to wreck America's budget for years to come. Home prices dip for 3d month Boston Globe Enough penance for corporations? CS Monitor Changing the Definition of Cash Flow Helped Tyco NY Times (R) ”Under both old and new management, Tyco is engaging in aggressive end-of-quarter balance-sheet management.” Tyco Admits to Gimmickry in Inflating Its Earnings NY Times (R) J.P. Morgan Exec Turns Amnesiac in Enron Grilling TheStreet Johnson & Johnson Puts $750 Million Into Its U.S. Pension Plans Bloomberg Tokyo stocks post lowest yearend close since 1982 Japan Times No panic yet -- but 2002 drags out financial sector despair Japan Times An Asian dream dissolves UPI
Monday December 30 Stock markets down third year in row Financial Times This is a crisis unfolding as badly as the Great Depression. Earnings `Time Bomb' Looms in U.S. as Pension Fund Losses Mount Bloom “Phantom pension earnings are portrayed as income. It's a ticking time bomb” Prizes for the characters who made 02 a year investors want to forget IHT (NYT) The danger signs in the micro-economy Financial Times Chicago Manufacturing Index Fell to 51.3 in December From 54.3 Bloomberg US states crippled by boom and bust AFP Nearly every one of the 50 US states is in the red... The Demise of the Dollar? Mises In 2002, Credit Worth Not Worth Much CFO Record number of credit downgrades last year. Herd mentality gathers force among analysts IHT (NYT) Retailers face tough times to come Reuters Poor consumer confidence may force some into bankruptcy. Foreclosures closing in on cash-strapped families StarTribune Global Chip Sales Growth Slows in November Reuters Investment-club membership declines NYT Service NYMEX crude futures stay above $33 on war fears Reuters Banks face more bad loans, possible M&A surge in new year Dow Jones Argentina's woes hit Miami banks Business Journal Lessons from the fall of an empire Financial Times The Lean Season NY Post I think everyone will probably go through continued layoffs in the next two months Gold Reserves Looted from Venezuela's Central Bank Militares Democraticos New warning after business failures reach eight-year high Financial Times Hitting the Dust (Picture) Times Online Bankruptcies of Listed Companies Double in 2002 Mainichi Golf courses landing in the rough Asahi
Weekend Edition (Dec 28-29) The Bust in Review Zeal Happy Days May Not Be Here Again in 2003 Reuters Rally by Natural Gas, Cocoa, Oil and Wheat May Inflate Prices Bloomberg Impact of market losses could rise MSNBC Quick, which of the past three years was the worst on the stock market? That’s right: Barring an end-of-year miracle, 2002 will go down as the worst year for equities since 1974. Emergency Jobless Benefits to End Washington Post Nearly 800,000 to Stop Receiving 13-Week Extension of Unemployment Aid Today...beginning Sunday, an additional 95,000 unemployed people will reach the end of theirregular benefits each week. Deepest state deficits in 50 years CS Monitor States are poised for another round of belt-tightening next month, but they're rapidly running out of notches. Fees Hidden in Plain Sight, Companies Add to Bottom Line NYT (R) Stock funds wrap up a crummy year, down 21.7% on average USA Today Crackdown on credit card debt BBC Britons are borrowing more than they are saving. Struggling in Debt, Sacrificing Pride NYT (R) Once almost inconceivable in a nation that places such a high value on savings, personal bankruptcies have risen to record numbers among the Japanese.
Friday December 27 2003 in Stocks: Four in a Row for the Bears TheStreet Individuals and companies reduce their debt burdens in a recession. We have had no recession, so there has been no debt reduction. Wall Street 6, investors 0 CNBC Morgan Stanley, Other Investment Banks See No Rebound Bloomberg Wall Street profits likely to be down two-thirds from 2000 NJN Research Group Says US Mutual Fund Firms Cut Ad Spending in 2002 BG Gold's enduring value makes it endearing Business Times Year of the Scandal Ends with Scandal CFO Corporate Scandal Primer Washington Post J.P. Morgan official: Enron deals were 'innovative' Boston Globe Internet stocks get another smackdown after brief rebound USA Today Japan says industrial output is 'weakening' FT Corporate fat cats under pressure Times Online
North Korea to Expel UN Nuclear Inspectors, Raising Tension Bloomberg
Thursday December 26 Crude $32 -- Gold $350 USA Today Pop Goes the Bubble - Part II Sell Your House Now! Depression.tv The more things change, the more they... Globe & Mail Wal-Mart Cuts Sales View as Demand Falters Reuters Is Personal Debt Sustainable? Levy Weakest holiday season in at least 30 years AP Mortgage Applications Fall Nearly 8 Pct. Reuters CEOs scramble to restore investors' faith Toronto Star Inquiry Now Examining Whether Enron's Assets Were Inflated NY Times (R) More gloom for Japan's economy BBC Rough Ride for German Economy DW-World
Wednesday December 25 Companies Greet '03 With Charges, Layoffs Reuters Congress Asked to Raise Debt Ceiling Washington Post Gold Set to Post Biggest Annual Gain in 23 Years, May Extend Rally in 2003 White House Aides Push for 50% Cut in Dividend Taxes NY Times (R) Bargain swans bring down cost of true love's shopping spree NJB
Salvage Effort Underway: “The goal will be to get rid of the current inventories and hope the spring brings better sales.” Bloomberg
Tuesday December 24 Nov Durable Orders Drop By 1.4% Census The Third Time Is Not The Charm Northern Trust Market Seer Prechter Called 1987 Crash, Says Dow to Fall to 800 Bloomberg Even the U.S. government's credit status may sink low enough to make Treasury bills shaky. '2002 will be year bear market clawed everyone' AP Consumer Debt Looks Set to Keep Soaring TheStreet U U.S. Retailers Facing Worst Holiday Sales in Decades Bloomberg Worst Holiday season in more than a decade CNNfn Hard times deliver soft sales at store USA Today Economy cracked seniors' nest eggs Detroit News Spitzer Fiddled While Investors Got Burned NY Post J.P. Morgan Setback NY Post A federal judge ruled yesterday that e-mail messages written by the vice chairman of J. P. Morgan Chase that refer to certain bank transactions as "disguised loans" could be used in a civil trial as evidence of potential fraud. NYT Bank of America plans to set aside $1.2 billion for bad loans Bloomberg Microsoft Loses a Round to Rival Sun NY Times (R) Struggling Kmart reports loss of $383 million in third quarter AP CEOs With the Most Stock Options Bloomberg Fund Manager to Settle Complaint Washington Post
Monday December 23 ”I must remind you, if you need reminding, that the market will have declined for three years in a row when this year is over.” Bill Wolman
2003 will be as big a struggle as 2002 MSN (Fleck) There's too much overhang from the market bubble and too many corporations trying to make things look better than they are. Fund manager urges caution UPI During the horrific bear market that lasted from the market peak on Sept. 3, 1929 until the bottom on July 8, 1932, the Dow finished up on 46 percent of the trading days and even though nearly half of the trading sessions finished in the black, the overall market declined 89 percent. Asset Bubbles, Market Crashes, and the Dilemmas for Policymakers ADP The Deadbeat Economy Forbes Subprime lending is a curse that is afflicting a scary array of industries far beyond credit cards. Gauging the Risks CNBC Accounting overhaul coming Globe & Mail The reforms -- which are still in the drafting stage -- will require companies with defined benefit pension plans to report any surplus or deficit in their plans on a redesigned income statement. Gold is again proving its value in a risky world Telegraph Imagine if the three wise men arrived in Bethlehem bearing frankincense, myrrh, and a promisory note signed by King Herod. Venezuela Oil Export Trickle May Not Last Reuters Oil prices pumped up CNN Laid-off techies work for stock options but no paycheck SF Gate Property Taxes Soar USA Today Mortgage refinancing helps economy stay out of abyss The Oregonian Citigroup to Take 4th-Quarter Charge of $1.5 Billion Bloomberg Wal-Mart's weekly comp-store sales at low end of ests CBS MarketWatch Accountant Admits to Role in Scheme Washington Post Euro zone "at risk of recession" BBC
Anyone who believes that bond research isn't just as subject to being written the way bankers want it to be is just kidding themselves.” NY Post
Weekend Edition (Dec 21-22) Fed Defends Stock 'Bubble' Performance Washington Post Tax cuts unlikely to help economy MSNBC The settlement stinks CNNfn Where's the horse-whipping? What the Seers See for 2003 Business Week (PDF File) Only Two ‘Seers’, of 66, See Operation Profits Dipping Next Year. None forecast a dip in quarterly GDP below 1%. The Bull in the Crystal Ball Business Week Strategists and portfolio managers see a Dow rally in '03. But then, they saw one in '02, too. Pondering the Next Shoe to Drop Prudent Bear (Noland) Behold The Gold Bull! Zeal Chairman Greenspan confirms that Gold has a place in support of a decaying Dollar GoldSeek Doth Greenspan protest too much? CNNfn Using a Weak Pension Plan as a Cash Cow NY Times (R) I've never heard of a company selling its own stock to its pension plan Hit The Road Jack NY Post
For the first time in this three-year slide, every one of the 10 broad sectors in the Standard and Poor's S&P 500 index dropped. AP
Friday December 20 Banks pay $1.4bn to settle stock tip row BBC Soros $2.2m insider trading fine CNNfn Someone Should Have Noticed HD Brous Cliggott sees Dow 7,000 by the end of 2003 CNBC Bubble Model Well Documented Comstock The Levers of Global Growth Morgan Stanley (Roach) The only "hope" in this post-bubble era may well be another rally in the stock market. Thin Air Standard GoldenBar Debtor-nation bankruptcy falters IHT (NYT) California Budget woes deemed worst in state history AP Market Value Creators and Destroyers MorningStar Year in Review? A Lot of Big Bankruptcies CFO The labor market needs a jump CNNfn October and November were the second and third-heaviest months of the year for layoffs. Regulators Set for Research Settlement Reuters Bush Scaling Down Plans for Tax Cuts NY Post Stocks Set for First 'Quadruple-Witching' Reuters CEO Charged With Fraud Washington Post U.S. Technologies' Earls Allegedly Diverted Funds. Dynegy Agrees to Pay $5 Million Fine Washington Post Errors force Allegheny to restate results Sunspot Utility warns of 'likely' bankruptcy unless it obtains new financing. Verizon Cuts 2,300 Employees Newsday Dow CEO Cuts Costs, Considering Job Cuts Reuters Duke Energy Corp. to Cut 275 Jobs AP Video game store Electronics Boutique cuts outlook Reuters SEC Launches Probe Into Halliburton Reuters Ex-WorldCom CEO may go unscathed CNNfn Barrick Gold says anti-trust allegations by Blanchard 'without merit' AFX Venezuela Strikers Will Try to Shut Down Caracas Bloomberg French Spending Has Biggest Drop in Almost Four Years Bloomberg Solvency fears for Australian stocks BBC Italy's pensions timebomb BBC Why Business a.m. did not do the business Scotsman
Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan FED Economy still going though soft patch, Greenspan says AP Fed's Poole-Must be wary of deflation and inflation Reuters
Thursday December 19 Gold leaps over US$350/oz in hectic Asian trade Reuters “It's been going like a runaway train” US Warburg (PDF) Gold's red-hot rally in Asia hit by profit-taking Reuters Gold, oil prices soar overnight CBS The powerful Commercials do NOT want higher gold 321 Bad stock market medicine Washington Times It's a bear rally, manager says Globe & Mail Did the January effect already happen? CNNfn California Budget Deficit Nears $35 Billion Reuters Inmates Go Free to Help States Reduce Deficits NYT (R) “I have to do what I have to do to live within the revenue that we have” Groundhog Day Comstock Three years ago outlandish PEs were supposedly justified by the ‘New Economy’. What is the rationalization now? Still bullish after all these years CNNfn Stocks are set to fall for three years running for the first time in 60 years, and to mark the occasion stock strategists are taking on the can-do optimism of Depression-era waif Little Orphan Annie. Cleaning Up Balance Sheets - A Start, But More To Go Northern Trust Payment coming due on flood of low-cost credit CBS (R) The party is definitely over in 2003. People can't continue to rack up these incredible amounts of debt. At some point, it's got to come home to roost. Accounting Board Probe Finds Broad SEC Failures Reuters The Keystone Kops couldn't have done a better job of undermining the formation of the accounting board than the SEC has done. Corporate America's path to a very public humbling Guardian NYSE Monthly Disciplinary Report NYSE Exchange-Traded Funds Rose $8.98 Billion In Nov Reuters ICI.org Retailers say ho, ho, hold the profits Globe & Mail Companies face more overtime lawsuits USA Today $28 Bln Tobacco Award Slashed to $28 Mln Reuters CSFB Gets Record UK Fine for Japan Breach Reuters FOA Falls 38% Amid Bankruptcy Threat NY Post Celox to lay off 125 as it shuts down Boston Globe Maker of chip gear cutting 1,450 jobs Toronto Star 600 layoffs at UAL Rocky Mountain News Power Prices Could Surge Courant (Connecticut) IMF to loan Brazil $3.1b Boston Globe Brazil's Lula, $300 Billion in Debt, Can Pay Bills or Help Poor Bloomberg President stripped of control over Caracas police AP Poor results for Latin American economies Pravada CEPAL India to Introduce Super Computer in 2 Months Bloomberg
Wednesday December 18 Conseco Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy AP Move Marks the Third Largest Bankruptcy in U.S. History. Barrick Gold Corp. And J.P.Morgan Chase & Co. Accused Of $2 Billion Illegal Gold Market Manipulation Print-PDF Gold looks even better if U.S. prints more money VS Stock Market Crashes Are Predictable; Major Decline Is Coming in 2003 and 2004, Says UCLA Physicist UCLA Uncertain holiday season for those facing cutoff of jobless benefits AP 750,000 out-of-work Americans will lose unemployment benefits three days after Christmas. A big economic rebound in '03? It may be a long shot IHT “Economists are always predicting a recovery. We are condemned to expect a recovery” Understanding Inflation and Deflation Gold-Eagle (Picks) Two Refiners Ask U.S. for Oil From Strategic Reserve NY Times (R) Steel retirees worried pension cuts will sting Express-Times Buy or Sell? Yes, JP Morgan Says NY Post A Bond Swap Available Only to Big Players NY Times (R) Qwest professes outrage that the details of its offer have been made public by disaffected bondholders. Micron Misses by a Mile TheStreet Bad-Loan Debate Percolates at Capital One TheStreet The Money Multiplier: Myth or Reality? Mises Sharp rise in inflation kills off lingering rate cut hope Independent Business gloom deepens in Germany BBC Japan Production Slowing, BOJ Says Bloomberg BOJ Nikkei plunges Globe & Mail 3-Month Argentina Not Expected To Repay Y50 Bln Samurai Dow Jones Venezuela strike protests intensify MSNBC Oil situation worsens AP Loonie Takes Flight Globe & Mail
Ex-Employee Is Accused of 'Bombing' Computer AP Figuring the damage would cause the company's stock price to fall, the former worker bought put options for UBS stock before activating the program. ATI probe includes offshore accounts Globe & Mail The offshore accounts placed aggressive bets through put options that reaped large profits when the ATI's stock dropped. Enron’s video skits show ironic twists CNBC Ex-Tyco Director Pleads Guilty to Felony AP 7 on WorldCom board resign Clarion-Ledger Members failed scandal test, says research director
Tuesday December 17 The Fallout is Most Dramatic At CNBC... USA Today The star power of Maria Bartiromo, CNBC's best-known journalist, continues to fade. W.House: Bush Backs 'Strong Dollar' Reuters INO $ Chart Fleischer repeats support for strong dlr Reuters Barchart U.S. Treasury says dollar policy unchanged Reuters Now, About That Deficit... NY Post If the government kept its books the same way companies are supposed to account for profits and losses, the U.S. would be in the hole last year for more than half a trillion dollars. Accepting the Bear Facts Washington Post Bear market shatters retirement dreams USA Today Firms play by altered rules after bear market, turmoil AP Bear Food - Fourth meal UPI My fourth Bear Food portfolio consists as usual of three companies. Forecast 2003 - Chapman GoldSeek Is history destined to repeat 2002? Financial Post Still in 'post-bubble convalescence,' says Merrill economics star. Slack demand sees US rents falling Financial Times Deflation Fears Withering as Commodities Rise Bloomberg Gold Hits Five-Year High as Dollar Reels Reuters $340 an Ounce CNNfn The Dollar Remains Depressed Reuters 'Fed Model' an unreliable guide IHT (NYT) Value of mergers and acquisitions 'almost halved' Straits Times So Far, No Holiday Fun for Toy Retailers Washington Post Santa Stuck in Retailers' Chimney? TheStreet Sales for the month to date are still considerably weaker than 2001's and are projected to fall 5.4% from last year (ShopperTrak) Company debt defaults to rise in 2003, warns S&P Independent Real estate loan delinquencies seen doubling in '03 Reuters Debt Raters Also Scam, Rivals Claim NY Post Eighty to 90 percent of these companies' revenues come from the companies they cover. Skyrocketing audit fees spark 'hard' haggling Financial Post The scourge of Wall Street on the cusp of a historic victory Guardian Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. Eyes Another Washington Post Lender's Unsecured Loans Date To 1994 Washington Post Stock exchange delists Kmart Detroit News Company officials said they need more time to deal with recently discovered accounting errors. McDonald's warns CNNfn Freddie Mac Tightens Certain Rules Reuters (WSJ) eBay faces new credit card scam BBC Feds Move Up Enron Food Chain Fortune Electrolux to cut more than 5,000 jobs, close New Jersey plant AP The Hunch That Led to Tyco's Tumble Business Week A Psychological Profile Tyco was moving huge sums of money offshore through art dealers. Why? Insilco Holding Files for Bankruptcy Protection Bloom (NYT) Clarent to file MN Warning by Bank on high debt levels Times Online Pensions overhaul to be unveiled Reuters FTSE retreats after failing to regain 4,000 Financial Times
Monday December 16 Oil tops $30 as Venezuela woes persist CBS Boom in mortgage financing may end Bloomberg Homeowners will take out $751 billion in home loans next year to repay older, costlier debt, often taking cash out of equity in their homes. That would be just over half the projected record of $1.4 trillion this year and down from $1.2 trillion in 2001. The sky didn't exactly fall: Stocks did, but we made do Philly Inquirer Many consumers sell stock to put money in real estate USA Today The Reflation Trade Morgan Stanley (Roach) My holiday wish: Give the market time to heal MSN (Fleck) The night of the killer zombies Economist Critics of Chapter 11 say it prolongs companies' lives beyond sensible limits, damaging healthy rivals. As Post-Boom Dust Settles, the South Grimly Downsizes NYT (R) After a Boom, There Will Be Scandal. Count on It. NYT (R) Despite all the surprise and anguish set off by corporate scandals, for many Wall Street historians and fraud aficionados, the year almost fits into a pattern... Mighty gold battle begins CBS MarketWatch Stocks will not be insulated from dollar fall CBS MarketWatch Will Snow be able to stand the heat? Times Online A continuing and sustained fall in the dollar’s value poses two substantial threats. US braced to feel the heat over rising steel output Financial Times Ten months after President George W. Bush imposed hefty tariffs of up to 30 per cent on foreign steel, a curious thing is happening to US steel imports: they are increasing. Web shoppers clicking up smaller orders Washington Post Some 74 per cent of shoppers surveyed said they are on a tighter holiday budget this year. Wall Street's Fine Mess Business Week How much should brokerages and banks pay in penalties for their tainted research? Here's a look at what past settlements cost. Our big fat dysfunctional economy MSNBC Top business stories of 2002 look a lot like a troubled family. Many not saving for retirement AP ‘Wage Collapse’ Newsday Sales tax again will rear its head AP (Oregon) Global Chip Sales +1.4% In 2002 Dow Jones (Gartner) Big 3 Automakers Are Likely to Swerve Into the Slow Lane NYT (R) Amazon: Heading for a Hangover? Business Week “It's basically nothing more than a minibubble.” More Staff Cuts Due at Worldcom NY Post Schwab’s New Star Analyst Not So Stellar NY Post Four years later, $6 billion acquisition haunts Conseco AP The seventh-largest insurance provider in the country could file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as soon as the end of this month. Problem loans hurt Bank of New York Journal News 6-year-old tape from Enron company party has parallels to scandal; exec joked about accounting AP Crude Oil Rises to 8-Week High as Venezuelan Strikes Halt Sales Bloomberg Venezuela Strike Chief: Increase Protests AP Foreign banks fleeing uncertainty in Brazil IHT (NYT) Nikkei Racks Up 9th Straight Loss on Strong Yen Reuters Tokyo's Nikkei average marked its longest losing streak in 11 years on Monday. Japan's Cracked Banking Colossus Business Week A cynic might say Mizuho's new plan amounts to reshuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. UK house prices face sharp fall BBC Business leaders demand action on structural reform to halt decline FT The mood of German business is unprecedentedly bleak. China's Car Sales Hit One Million for First Time Reuters
Weekend Edition (Dec 14-15) Wall Street investors prepare for corporate confessions Reuters So far, almost 555, or about 43 percent, have warned they will miss analysts' targets, while roughly 330, or 26 percent, have forecast a better fourth quarter than Wall Street had predicted... Credit Bubble Bulletin Prudent Bear (Noland) Bear-Market Rally Autopsy Zeal Russell Rambling on Gold 321Gold Even the Biggest Bear Markets Have Rallies EW It's your choice: Hunker down versus hunky-dory Guardian Gold backers -- finally -- in nirvana CBS (Calandra) Goldman's Cohen: 2002 A 'Surprisingly Good Year' DJ Cramer vs. Cramer: Another Day, Another Fantasy Cap Mag Milken advising Japanese CBS MarketWatch (Baron’s) Milken was "informally approached" by executives of Axes Securities Co. and gave a presentation on the potential of a high-yield bond market in Japan Shares May Fall With Earnings Estimates Bloomberg Goodbye to Monster Stock Gains Reuters Wall Street Bonuses Slashed This Year Reuters We don't know whether the bonus will be in cash or shares, but even if it's all in shares it's OK because we were joking we might get our bonus in the Turkish lira, or even the Italian lira. Dollar Loses More Ground to Both the Euro and the Yen NY Times (R) New Fees Worsen the Market's Sting NY Times (R) After watching their portfolios plummet in value, many investors are now being pinched by higher fees. Video-Game Shares Zapped by Sales Weakness TheStreet World utility pension gap yawns to $65 bln-study Reuters Regulated companies may not be able to fully recover this cost. Future of Iraq's oil reserves, world's supply depends on type of war waged CP
PPI report stirs deflation fears CNNfn
Friday December 13 Euro hits three-year high BBC Financial markets give Bush policies the thumbs down. Gold surpasses $330, spells equity trouble CBS Investors seek shelter from rising world tension Reuters Here’s a Hard Stocking Stuffer To Pass Up NY Post You can buy stock now in the world's first public offering of a legal brothel at just 30 cents a share. More disturbing 'rarely used policies' CBS MarketWatch Stocks staggering, gold galloping -- what was that about taking "whatever means necessary" to keep things going? U.S. November Producer Prices Fall 0.4%; Core Rate Falls 0.3% Bloom Crude Oil Rises as Strikes in Venezuela Disrupt Fuel Shipments Bloomberg Can This Decade Be The Next 1930s? Gold-Eagle Stop Bashing China Morgan Stanley (Roach) Deaf to Good News, Market Isn't Blind to Gold TheStreet Technical Indicators Negative Also Comstock Crucial Terms Unresolved in Settlement for Wall St. NY Times (R) We need to change the way the firms do business. We need information for investors and we need significant penalties. Some of the firms are not ready to take those steps... Coke to stop issuing guidance CNNfn Former executives hit Fleet with $140m claim Boston Globe NASDAQ CEO On Ropes NY Post Verizon president tells employees layoffs are 'simply inevitable' BG 3,500 Ford to Review How Chairman Got 400,000 Goldman Shares NY Times (R) CEO sold off 111,300 shares right before FDA setback Bloomberg Was Caine Giving Walking Papers by Raytheon? CFO French police swoop on Vivendi offices Guardian FERC's ruling throws state a $7 billion loss Tri-Valley Herald Natural gas prices hit 19-month high AP Japanese Economic Survey Sees a Recession in '03 NY Times (R) Argentina suspends $726m debt payment to World Bank AP Argentina pleads for help BBC Euro breaks through USD1.02 on dollar Online.ie Friday the 13th, lucky for some, but not those long dollars BOJ purchases 71 billion yen in stocks owned by banks JT Japan poses risk to global stability: IMF Japan Times
Bush names Freidman as top econcomic adviser Globe & Mail Mr. Friedman, 64, served as co-chair of the giant Wall Street investment bank of Goldman Sachs from 1990 to 1994. He shared those posts with Robert Rubin. Fed Members Warned of Deflation Risks at Nov. Meeting Bloomberg Minutes
Thursday December 12 Dollar Slides ~ Spot Gold jumps above $330 COMEX gold up on weak dlr, Iraq-terror link Reuters Crude back above $28 level CBS MarketWatch World Bank cuts global growth forecast AFP Worldbank Global economy 'may fall back into recession' Independent A "significant risk" exists that the world will plunge back into recession next year. WB Nov Retail Sales Up 4% Census Weekly Jobless Claims Jump to 444K DOL Confidence Takes a Hit ABC Consumer confidence took another unusually steep fall this week... Is Bill Donaldson too much of an insider? Globe & Mail Donaldson May Be Haunted By His NYSE Past NY Post Don’t go attaching the title SEC Chairman to William Donaldson's name quite yet. SEC nominee is target of class-action suit AP Snow is just an O'Neill clone National Post High hopes, heavy debt loads MarketGuide Corning and Nortel have rallied sharply, but still face massive debt and a shrinking market for their goods. The entire airline industry could go bankrupt AP More than 350 mutual funds shut their doors this year Financial Times Wall Street Strategists Miss Market Drop in 2002 Bloomberg If you want to gamble and speculate, you do market timing McPaper on investing Worldnetdaily Gold Buggin' Forbes OPEC risks price collapse, Saudi says TheAge OPEC needs to cut oil output by as much as two million barrels a day, or 8 per cent, to avoid a collapse in prices next year. Despite Denial, Enron Papers Show Big Profit on Bets NYT (R) Several Enron trading officials said that to justify their risk-taking, they told the company's executives and directors that, like a casino, Enron had a "house advantage" in the energy markets. Executives Allege Bristol-Myers Burnished Its Results DJ Police Search Vivendi HQ for Records Reuters Microsoft manager accused of $9 million fraud scheme Seattle Times Senators Grill Bankers Over Enron Washington Post Citigroup, Chase Officials Deny Knowledge of Intent to Hide Debt. Consumers Will Pay More to Stay Warm This Year Washington Post French Production Declines 0.6%, Fewer Jobs Created Bloomberg West Europeans Shun Luxury Vehicles for Second Month Bloomberg The Scottish economy is still in deep trouble Daily Record Faser
Wednesday December 11 Look out! Insiders are bailing CNNfn Want one more reason why this rally might not be for real? Insiders sold in droves in November. Dollar Falls before Current Account Data Bloomberg The Futility Of Current Monetary Policy Comstock Household Debt Load May Pose Threat to Spending Bloomberg U.S. household borrowing has surpassed $8 trillion and is rising at the fastest rate in almost 13 years. Personal bankruptcies are at an all-time high and mortgage foreclosures have reached a 30-year peak. Alarm bells ring at Fed Financial Review Snow job over polarised bears Australian Shareholders can vote on stock options, SEC says Bloomberg There are plenty of CFOs and CEOs will be scared to death of this... Junk bond investors threaten boycott Financial Times 6 banks balk at proposed payments USA Today Congradulations, Bill; Here’s a to-do List for the SEC NY Post SEC Nominee Donaldson Feuded With Ex-SEC Chief On Accounting DJ Economic Nominee Under Fire From Right Washington Post Nominee sat on board against tax cuts Washington Times A Wall Street Insider for the S.E.C. NY Times (R) US Hubbard Says Deficits Matter Little For Economy Dow Jones CalPERS fires Merrill, Credit Suisse Reuters Intel's Grove says too soon to call chip rebound Reuters Kimberly-Clark issues fourth-quarter warning CBS MarketWatch UAL's fall threatens collateral damage Financial Times CSFB poised to liquidate property portfolio Financial Times Enron saved $93 million in Canadian tax Toronto Star Merrill Lays Off About 10% of Investment-Banking Staff Dow Jones Again, Washington Looks to Goldman Washington Post Charter Communication To Cut Costs, Jobs NY Post Sprint to Cut 2,100 Jobs Reuters AOL begins layoffs CNN Schlumberger to Cut 1,600 Jobs TheStreet Downgrade Pushes Dynegy Closer to the Brink TheStreet Ex-Cendant Execs to Face New Charges Reuters (WSJ) Get that Billionaire! TownHall SEC to propose new mutual fund disclosure rules Boston Globe Pension squeeze tightens BBC Britain's trade deficit balloons as exports collapse Independent Venezuela crisis deepens BBC Venezuelans in rush to draw bank savings Financial Times Redline Latin America?-II UPI Brazil's Lula Urges Bush to Help Revive Bank Lending in Meeting Bloomberg Banks agree to bail out government Daily Star (Lebanon)
“According to the most recent PricewaterhouseCoopers Management Barometer survey, top corporate managers have lowered their revenue targets for the next 12 months and have reduced plans for new investments and hiring.” CFO
Tuesday December 10 “What may be an ominous sign is that it is now clear that 1Q03 earnings will not beat 4Q02 earnings by a wider margin then 4Q02 beat 3Q02...” Chuck Hill
Bush Picks Donaldson as SEC Chairman Bloomberg -- Biographical Look at William H. Donaldson AP Yale -- Declared Positions FOMC Statement Fed Pop Goes the Bubble - Part I - Sell Stocks Now! Depression.tv It's time to print money CBS MarketWatch (Makin) The Fed should be contemplating a "reverse-Volcker" move. Bernankeian Economics Mises Pushing on a String Smart Money This game is called hedonic pricing, and it boosts the gross domestic product without providing a corresponding lift to corporate profits. 2002 Yearend: Not much glee in 2003 UPI Market could notch four down years in a row JSOnline Since 1896, the S&P 500 has fallen for four consecutive years on only one occasion. That inheritance "nest egg' you're hoping for may not hatch AP Experts: Ad slump won't end until 2004 USA Today The Three-Year PC Cycle Lost Its Wheels TheStreet It became an article of faith among tech investors that companies would undertake a wholesale replacement of their computers every three years. Nokia Cuts Fourth-Quarter Sales Forecast Bloomberg BIS Quarterly Review December 2002 BIS Uh Oh Baby! Broker Who Failed to Deliver Sued NY Post Tyco sues Kozlowski, ex-CFO over trade AP Saudi Arabia calls for oil output cuts BBC Output doubts shadow OPEC summit CBS MarketWatch NYMEX crude futures fall on Venezuela talks report Reuters Redline Latin America?-I UPI Latin American unemployment soars BBC
Monday December 9 UAL Files Biggest Airline Bankruptcy Reuters -- The $6.45 billion crash landing Chart -- CHRONOLOGY-Key events in United Airlines history Reuters Is a cleaner Street around the corner? MSN (Fleck) Bush to Tap CSX Chairman for Treasury Reuters Dollar Falls After W-Post Reports Snow Will Replace O'Neill The dollar is likely to remain under pressure until O'Neill's replacement voices his views on the currency The Global Economy in 2004 - Back to Trend (Barely) Roach Richard Russell on the Markets Gold-Eagle California Is at Fiscal Brink NY Times (R) Public soon to feel budget crisis Modbee Real estate market draws boomers soured on stocks AP Inquiry Said to Examine Citigroup Role in Enron Deal NY Times Banks' Enron Deals Draw Scrutiny Dow Jones Sears’ Credit Woes NY Post Ford finds a new form of financing Reuters NYSE Proposal Clashes With 1st Amendment WP Tokyo wants new White House team to follow its weak yen philosophy JT Latin America: What the Movies Tell Us theGlobalist What Argentine Don Ameche didn’t realize is that Betty Grable’s U.S. money comes with some very nasty strings attached... Venezuela strike crisis deepens BBC Crude Oil Rises Bloomberg “They are obsessed, sick... they have diabolical, satanic minds” Hugo Chavez, referring to the opposition. German Industry Production Falls Most in 1 1/2 Year Bloomberg Japan banks' NPL woes go beyond bubble collapse Business Times BOJ Japan's Oct. Machinery Orders Fall More Than Expected Bloomberg
Weekend Edition (Dec 7-8) N.U.T.S. Stock Play May Get Short Run Reuters The lesson that valuation matters still hasn't sunk in after the most horrific bear market in a generation... UAL bankruptcy looks 'imminent' CBS MarketWatch The Anatomy of a Maladjusted Economy Prudent Bear (Noland) The Big Kozlowski Fortune Forget Enron and WorldCom. To this day, most people have no clue what special-purpose entities are...What they will remember is the bald guy with the $6,000 shower curtain. Reverse Splitsville NY Post So far this year, 72 tech companies have announced reverse-split plans - more than the previous two years combined. A Home Insurance Premium Hike is Next NY Post Property owners just getting used to the idea of an 18.5 percent property-tax hike should brace themselves for another financial shock - a double-digit increase in homeowner's insurance premiums. Lindsey, O’Neill Fought Like Cats and Dogs NY Post Larry Lindsey thinks Paul O'Neill's a jerk - and thought he would get the Treasury job once O'Neill got the boot... O'Neill: He quits, he scores! National Post Here are some of O’Neill’s more colourful quotes. An Old Friend, Vice President, Delivered News NY Times (R) Ford and Goldman, So Cozy at the Top NY Times (R) Wall St. concerned it was fooled into another bear market rally AP Pressure Is On for Bush To Name SEC Chairman Washington Post The missing link Analyst To focus most of the current concern on mechanismsof financial oversight misses the crucial point that boards of directors who are accountable for these mechanisms are ill-designed to oversee them. Few constraints on loan sharks Times Online The consumer boom that has kept the economy healthy has been funded on large doses of credit that are now giving economists cause for concern. But the full extent of the debt does not show up in any statistics... Dresdner to cut 800 jobs in shake-up Financial Times Brazil inflation hits 8-year high as currency weakens AP Rival protesters march in Caracas BBC
Shoppers may be crowding into department stores to buy holiday gifts, but when it comes to purchasing the stocks of retailers, their pocketbooks are slammed shut... NY Post
Friday December 6 Bush Shakes Up Econ. Team Reuters An administration official said O'Neill quit "at the request of the White House”. O’Neill Resigns Bloomberg Lindsey Resigns AP Gold gains ground as O'Neill resigns CBS MW (Calandra) “O'Neill has been unable to maintain the illusion that the dollar is worthy of being the world's reserve currency” Payrolls Drop By 40K in November BLS Government figures the unemployment rate now at 6% The Perils of Competitive Currency Devaluation MS (Roach) Intel: How do you value zero growth? CNNfn A year ago, the last quarter of what Intel CEO Craig Barrett called "a terrible year for our industry," Intel registered $7 billion in revenues. That's right. If the company hits the high end of its new range, revenues will be flat compared with its annus horribilis. Sell on strength, legendary investor says MSN (on Levy) Today, at 77, worn but wealthy and still active as an investor, he is more pessimistic about the U.S. economy and stock market than ever before in his adult life. Spend Less, Save More Business Week Using Bogle's framework, a reasonable forecast for real returns over the coming decade is somewhere between 4% and 8%. One thing that hasn't changed: bubble-era accounting Forbes Stocks on Stilts Forbes (Grant) We hear over and over: "The bottom is in." What we don't hear is that stocks are cheap...The market has fallen, but from the heavens. Wireless Ain't What It Used to Be Optionetics “If I was a betting man, I would say that investments in wireless are the next big bubble to burst” Governors Cite U.S. In Fiscal Crises Washington Post Condo leaders fret over finances CBS MarketWatch 18 percent saw an increase in the number of delinquent assessments California Homeowners say they got the shaft SF Gate Money funds rise in latest week AP ICI Households' net worth drops, Fed says Reuters Flow of Funds Fed Crisis At United NY Times (R) The airline business does’t work... MSNBC Judge Compares Microsoft to Tonya Harding AP Corning sees little telecom growth until late 2004 Reuters America Online Cuts To Include Va. Jobs Washington Post Delphi to cut 200 jobs AP Cessna to Cut 1,500 Gold Derivatives: Moving towards Checkmate Golden Sextant War with Iraq could cost United States nearly $2 trillion over a decade AP Tensions keep oil markets unstable Gulf News Venezuelan General Strike Enters 5th Day VOA News One rebel tanker was boarded Thursday by the navy, after the Venezuelan leader announced he will use the military to stop what he called the sabotage of the country's oil industry. Link Euro zone - a union of slowpokes FAZ Gloomy outlook for investors IcWales According to new research by insurance giant Axa, nearly three-quarters of investors now say they would not put money into shares for some time.
Last of Enron's tilted Es fetches lowest price AP $33,000 bid for Enron E letter-perfect Houston Chronicle At a September auction, Microcache Computers paid $44,000 for a lighted E.
Thursday December 5 U.S. risks Japanese-style deflation: CIBC economist T-Star Bankruptcy clause heightens battle for US skies Reuters A number of industry experts are of the view that if United enters bankruptcy, it will secure an immediate 20 per cent cost advantage vis-a-vis American Airlines, forcing that firm to seek protection as well. JP Morgan Says UAL Shares to Be Worthless Reuters Beware the temptation to chase rising prices MSN (Fleck) More often than not, however, chasing the market is a recipe for disaster. Consensus 'buy' signal spells 'sell' Financial Post Is the Future One of Deflation or Inflation? Gold-Eagle Of bonds, bears and deflation CBS MarketWatch Time To Print Money AEI Trading the Put/Call Ratio Zeal The 401(k) lawsuit jitters CBS MarketWatch Employers work to protect themselves from liability. How to protect yourself from a housing bubble Bankrate Retail Sales Edge Up Reuters Wal-Mart’s sales rose a modest 2.6 percent in Nov...the low end of its expectations. LTD - DDS - AFN - ANF - JCP - ANN - SHRP - CBK - BONT - MIK - GPS - ROST TLB - MW - BLI - PRI - COST - VCD - KSS - FTUS - BBY - S - TGT Economy Faces Slow Growth, Forecast Says Reuters Many boomers awash in family telecom bills AP New rules will damage NYSE, chief warns Financial Times Merrill cuts Morgan CNNfn Charges Vs. Analysts Due NY Post Merrill Starting to Dump 200-300 Bankers NY Post Ch. 11 cuts into fast-food line Miami Herald Tyco May Be Facing $1.7 Billion IRS Payment TheStreet AOL staffers fear job cuts WSJ Bloomberg's tidings will tax patience Times Online New York’s finances are already $1 billion in the red this year, rising to $6.2 billion next year. Euro rates slashed to boost growth BBC Lloyds TSB warns Latin American exposure may bring heavy losses Independent Swiss Banks ordered to split research and banking Swissinfo.org Japan capital spending slides amid weak sentiment Reuters Japanese contractors face collapse Bloomberg Foreign direct investment in Japan plummets nearly 60% Japan Times Affluent Farmers Start to Buy Stocks in East China People’s Daily Local residents describe their current lives as one percent of farm work and 35 percent stock trading.
U.S. set to cite Iraq for breach Washington Times The issue of declaring a material breach was discussed earlier this week at the NSC principals committee meeting. U.S. prepares major callup for Iraq NY Times Service
Wednesday December 4 U.S. rebuffs UAL on loan guarantee -- UAL Plunges “It's about a business plan that is fundamentally flawed...” IBM to Pay $3 Bln to Fund U.S. Pension Gap Bloomberg Questions For The Genie Pimco (Gross) Noted bear believes worst is yet to come in markets P-Gazette “If you are preoccupied with pedestrian concerns or blithely going along with mainstream opinions you need to wake up now, while there is still time." (Prechter) Investors suppress tech wreck memories USA Today The lofty valuations aren't because of earnings woes that companies will soon leave behind. P-Es are high even when allowing for another year of growth The tech rally has left some Wall Street strategists tingling with optimism SM Goldman Sachs's Abby Joseph Cohen put what's left of her once-sterling reputation on the line last week. Borrowholics Etherzone It looks like the first order of business for the new 108th Congress is going to be to raise the debt ceiling again. Wal-Mart sales show negative real consumer growth 321Gold Third Time's the Harm for Market TheStreet Market Returning To Reality Comstock White House Aims to Cut Taxes Paid by Individuals on Corporate Dividends WSJ Tale of Two Recessions: The Current Slowdown in NYC Compare to the Early 1990s Fiscal Policy Institute (PDF File) Pre-9/11 Job Levels Still Four Years Away, Study Says Newsday State's pension fund fires manager JPMorgan Bloomberg Massachusetts, the 35th-biggest US pension fund with $25.8 billion, joins California's public employees pension fund in criticizing the performance of the world's sixth-largest money manager. Missouri faced with borrowing $134 million for unemployment Fund AP Refinancing Boom May End, Hurt Growth Bloomberg SEC Probes Mouse NY Post Eisner has dropped a double bombshell on Walt Disney's shares by announcing a federal probe of its boardroom and a surprise earnings reversal. Office Depot: Sales Below Expectations Reuters Why United Should Go for Broke Business Week J.D. Edwards Warns of Flat 1st Quarter Reuters Reuters axes 300 jobs in $100m Instinet cost cuts Independent Lehman,Cowen to repay $100 mln in rogue broker scam Dow Jones(WSJ) Case about a broker who falsified customers' account statements over 15 years. J.P Morgan Admits 'Circular' Enron Deals Reuters Cigna Corp. Accused of Corruption AP Enron smashes record for bankruptcy fees Houston Chronicle Tenet Healthcare Cuts Earnings Outlook AP Amazon uses faux recommendations WSJ U.S. carmakers report sales dip AP Investors seeking to know their proxy votes AP Any shareholder who wants to know how we're voting the shares on his behalf, to say that we're not going to tell them, stands common sense on its head Bush Expected to Choose Nominee for SEC Chief Within Two Weeks Reuters Mexican officials promoting prison factories to U.S. companies AP Canadian Investors dump mutual funds Globe & Mail November's impressive stock market rally merely slowed investors' headlong rush for the exits. Bank profits off by nearly a third Toronto Star The big five were burned particularly by loans to U.S. companies that collapsed. Explaining Japan's Recession Mises European Economies: GDP May Contract in First Quarter, EU Says Bloomberg German unemployment soars BBC South Korea credit card lending soars BBC Risk seen growing for REITs Globe & Mail
“Those seeking to take short positions in gold in the high $310's should seek professional psychiatrist assistance.” Kaplan ~ Gold jumps above $320
Tuesday December 3 The Tax-Cut Recipe for Ruin Business Week Real estate horror stories CNNfn There's never been a national bust but keep an eye on your backyard. Merrill Lynch Says Cut U.S. Equities, Increase Bonds Bloomberg “The equity market still appears highly speculative to us'' Bernstein More... Falling claims don't mean the worst is over CBS MarketWatch (Kellner) Wall Street stars mauled by the bear Globe & Mail Response to Barron's Bull Comstock Currency Rhetoric Goldenbar When Head And Shoulders Above Isn't Good Forbes Ho, Ho, Ho! How About GE at $919? NY Post “My Disney stock was trading at $533 per share. I thought something was wrong, but then I checked other Web sites and they all carried the same prices. I thought I had just made $50,000!” GM Posts 18% Drop in November U.S. Sales; Ford Has 17% Decline DJ Big Sales Draw Crowds, Not Big Gains for Retailers NYT (R) Laws of physics show market 'anti-bubble' Financial Times Stocks luring back some skeptics IHT (LAT) Some people who swore they would never again be interested in the stock market, after the losses of the past three years, lately may be finding it difficult to resist sneaking a peek. Accounting Firms Report Slower Revenue Growth Washington Post The accounting industry experienced its slowest growth in a decade. 5 brokers fined for e-mail violations CNNfn Hey SEC, is that all you got? CNNfn Janus In Joepardy NY Post Corporate Cases Keep Top Lawyers Hopping Washington Post Webster to Leave Accounting Board by Jan. AP Investment bank bonuses crash 50% from last year Globe & Mail (Canada) "The days of million-dollar analysts are numbered." Bankruptcy Tangles Enron's Future Washington Post United defers paying $875 million in loans Boston Globe Irwin Toy in bankruptcy protection; slashes workforce CBC Ad Drought Continues at AOL TheStreet WWE takes a pounding in TV ratings AP J.P. Morgan cut Brazil's debt to underweight CBS MarketWatch Why 'my' Japanese crash may be pivotal Times Online Japan Proposes Capital gains tax of 10% for certain stocks JT The nation's tax revenue in October fell 4 percent from a year earlier. MOF Yen dives as Japanese minister triggers bear rampage Reuters UK Factories edge towards recession Guardian Germany's Jobless May Top Four Million AP Maxwell pensioners face 50% cut over government demand Times Online Parekh held for Kolkata stock scam India Times Most of the trades done by Parekh were aimed at rigging stock prices in close nexus with company promoters.
'Iraq has six days to avert war' says Bush Times Online U.N. says equipment moved CNN Crude Oil Rises as UN Inspectors Search Palace Compound Bloom
Monday December 2 It Takes Two To Tango Contrary Investor Beyond Another Dip? Morgan Stanley (Roach) As U.S. ages, fears of a long bear market IHT (NYT) SSRN ISM Index Edges Higher - Still Shows Contraction ISM Tech sector is not out of the woods just yet Financial Times Sachs estimates there has been a $100bn asset allocation inflow from bonds into equities since the summer, a switch that clobbered short-sellers...But while IT shares have recovered, demand for technology has continued to deteriorate. Critics spotlight flaws of 401(k)s IndyStar Your 401(k) plan, unreformed despite Washington's promises, may fail you. Corporate shenanigans have firm foundation in history P-Gazette Pension Crisis Will Worsen in 2003 CFO Pension Funds’ Risky Business Newsweek Ford: Market rebound has trimmed U.S. pension liability AP Five billion dollars or whatever order of magnitude it is ... is not the end of the world given the present depressed state of the equity markets. Ford VP. Why Research Reform Won't Help the Little Guy Business Week NCFE: Death-Dealing Side of the Bubble EIR The Fallen Financier Buisness Week Ken Lipper wanted to be a big wheel in Hollywood and New York... Fund investors have studying to do AP (Vanguard Survey) Money-market funds lose long-term luster AP The average taxable money fund is yielding 1.05 percent after expenses. Enron, One Year Later Mises How It All Fell Apart (AOL/Time Warner) Newsweek EDS downgraded due to 'emotional baggage' CBS MarketWatch J.P. Morgan takes on insurers as Enron financing case begins WSJ Christmas Crumble NY Post Burger King to Slash Whopper Price WSJ BCE profit figures vary wildly: report Financial Post Yen Falls After Shiokawa Says Japan's Currency Should Plunge Bloomberg ‘Zombie' Contractors Face Collapse, Swelling Jobless Bloomberg German Carmakers Fear a Crash Ahead Business Week UK economy faces 'uncertain' outlook BBC China Limits Program on Foreign Investment WSJ An important lesson from the Asian financial crisis is we should avoid short-term capital inflows from foreign-securities investors Japan urges China to join fight against deflation Business Times
Weekend Edition (Nov 30-Dec1) Margin Loans Edge Toward Mainstream Washington Post A Failing Grade for Mutual Funds Washington Post Why Don't Mutual Funds Vote in the Sunlight? NY Times (R) S.E.C. Facing Deeper Trouble NY Times (R) Some experts say there are parallels between the problems the agency developed during his tenure and the difficulties it faced in its early days during the Depression Calling the dogs off on Wall Street . . . Washington Times The Delta-Hedged Economy Prudent Bear What Housing Bubble?? Gold-Eagle Could disaster strike twice? Financial Post Few today think the U.S. can fall into deflation. They once said the same in Japan. ‘We haven't yet stormed the fortress' IHT The average analyst in any given year will miss his or her recommendation by 42 percent. These statistics go back 30 years. What percentage of analysts will be within 5 percent of earnings for 20 quarters? One in 25 billion. Washington's $782 Billion Spending Spree Capitalism Magazine Politicians who want to spend even more money are telling taxpayers that its time to sacrifice. To which taxpayers should reply: ‘You first.’ A $12 billion fantasy Washington Times United Weighs Filing for Chapter 11 Washington Post Executives at United Airlines' parent's company, UAL Corp., are wrestling with whether to pay a $375 million debt due Monday. Airlines nearing bankruptcy owe $1.7 billion to Boeing Seattle Times As inheritances fall, a boom in disputes AP A lot of boomers are depending on what their parents have saved all these years to pay off their debts and loans. After the bust, a boom in fraud suits for Wall Street's lawyers Times Online It’s The Dollar, Not The Dow Gold-Eagle £165m plunge as Wetherspoon sounds warning The Scotsman Business for pubs has clearly got a lot tougher.
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